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Serie A

Cagliari - Como

03/07/2026, 02:00 PM

1 : 2
Expected Goals
Cagliari
0.6
Total xG
2.2
Como
1.6
Most Likely Scores

0:1

17%

0:2

15%

0:0

12%

1:1

12%

1:2

8%
What influences the xG?
CAGCOM

Cagliari

Attack weakness (0.45x league average)
-1.00
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.07
Standings disadvantage (pos 13 vs 5, 8 places gap)
-0.05
Gianluca Gaetano not in squad (2 goals, 3 assists)
Semih Kılıçsoy not in squad (4 goals, 0 assists)
Luca Mazzitelli not in squad (2 goals, 2 assists)
20% of goal output missing (only 75% available)

Como

Attack strength (1.37x league average)
+0.59
Defensive strength (0.8 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)
-0.30
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
-0.18
Standings advantage (pos 5 vs 13, 8 places gap)
+0.06
Martin Baturina not in squad (4 goals, 3 assists)
Maxence Caqueret not in squad (2 goals, 4 assists)
Weak away record (1.3 vs 2 goals/match)
Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

11%

Draw

27%

Away Win

62%

Goals

Over 1.5

66%

Under 1.5

34%

Over 2.5

38%

Under 2.5

62%

Over 3.5

18%

Under 3.5

82%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

38%

Away or Draw

89%

No Draw

73%

Both Score

Yes

36%

No

64%

Key Factors
  • Prediction: The mathematical analysis indicates a high win probability of 62% for Como
  • Como's Away Strength: Averaging 1.67 goals scored and conceding only 0.83 goals per away game
  • Cagliari's Poor Form: With WLLDD in the last five games and only 1 win
Risk Factors
  • Cagliari's Offensive: Averaging only 3.0 shots on target per game, indicating a lack of efficiency
  • Low-Scoring Matches at the Venue: Sardegna Arena shows a BTTS rate of 0% and an Over 2.5 rate of 20% in the last 5 games
Overview

Cagliari (13th place, 30 points) host Como (5th place, 48 points) at the Sardegna Arena. The Serie A match takes place on March 7, 2026, 3:00 PM. While Cagliari battles against relegation, Como aims to solidify its position in the European spots

Form

Cagliari's form in their last five competitive matches is WLLDD, which translates to 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses. Como's current form is LDWWD, with 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss. The away team has a slightly better recent form. W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Cagliari averages 1.07 home goals and concedes 1.07 home goals per game. Como shows a strong away performance, averaging 1.67 goals scored and conceding only 0.83 goals. At Sardegna Arena, there's an average of 1.6 goals per game. Both teams scored in 0 out of 5 matches, and 1 out of 5 matches had over 2.5 goals

Head-to-Head

In 5 direct encounters, Cagliari secured 1 win, Como achieved 1 win, and there were 3 draws. The goal difference is even at 5:5. The last match on November 8, 2025, ended in a 0-0 draw

Key Players

For Cagliari, key players include Sebastiano Esposito (3 goals, 5 assists), Marco Palestra (1 goal, 4 assists), and Michael Folorunsho (2 goals, 0 assists). Como's crucial players are Nico Paz (9 goals, 6 assists), Anastasios Douvikas (9 goals, 1 assist), and Måximo Perrone (2 goals, 4 assists). For Cagliari, Gianluca Gaetano (2G/3A), Semih Kılıçsoy (4G/0A), and Luca Mazzitelli (2G/2A) are not in the lineup. For Como, Martin Baturina (4G/3A) and Maxence Caqueret (2G/4A) are not in the lineup

Goalkeepers

Elia Caprile is Cagliari's goalkeeper, recording 6 clean sheets this season. Jean Butez is Como's goalkeeper, who has kept 13 clean sheets this season

Influences

The Sardegna Arena is known for typically low-scoring matches, with an average of 1.6 goals per game. In the last 5 games at this venue, both teams did not score, and only one game had over 2.5 goals. Cagliari averages 1.07 goals scored and 1.07 goals conceded in home games. Como scores 1.67 goals and concedes 0.83 goals per away game

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