Serie A
Lazio - Sassuolo
03/09/2026, 07:45 PM
Expected Goals
1.2
2.7
1.5
1:1
13%1:2
9%0:2
8%2:1
7%2:2
5%What influences the xG?
Lazio
Sassuolo
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
27%
Draw
28%
Away Win
44%
Goals
Over 1.5
77%
Under 1.5
23%
Over 2.5
51%
Under 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
29%
Under 3.5
71%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
56%
Away or Draw
73%
No Draw
72%
Both Score
Yes
56%
No
44%
Key Factors
- Pipeline Prediction: The mathematical analysis forecasts an away win for Sassuolo with 44% probability
- Sassuolo's Resurgence: The visitors show a positive form trend, currently scoring more (2.0) than their season average (1.3)
- Lazio's Offensive Weakness: Goal production is stagnant (0.8), with a negative form trend and fewer shots on target (3.2)
Risk Factors
- Lazio's striker Andrea Pinamonti (6 goals, 3 assists) is absent due to injury
- Lazio's goal production is currently stagnant (0.8) compared to the season average (1.2) with a negative trend
- Lazio creates few clear scoring opportunities, averaging only 3.2 shots on target
Overview
Lazio (11th place, 34 points) hosts Sassuolo (9th place, 38 points) at the Stadio Olimpico for a Serie A match on March 9, 2026, 8:45 PM. Sassuolo is four points ahead of the hosts, with both teams vying for a better mid-table position.
Form
Lazio shows poor form with DLDLD in their last five games (0 wins, 3 draws, 2 losses). Their last match was a 2-2 draw against Atalanta. Sassuolo, however, is in strong form with WLWWW (4 wins, 0 draws, 1 loss). Sassuolo recently won 2-1 against Atalanta and is on a 3-game winning streak. (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
Statistics
Lazio scores an average of 0.96 goals per game this season and concedes 1.00 goals. At home, they score 0.95 goals per home game and concede 0.84 goals. The team kept 12 clean sheets and failed to score in 14 games. For Lazio, 6 games ended with both teams scoring and 7 games had over 2.5 goals. Sassuolo scores an average of 1.26 goals per game and concedes 1.33 goals. Away from home, they score 1.31 goals and concede 1.23 goals. Sassuolo achieved 6 clean sheets and failed to score in 9 games. 13 games ended with both teams scoring and 15 games had over 2.5 goals. At the Stadio Olimpico, an average of 3.4 goals are scored per game, and both teams score in 40% of matches. Over 2.5 goals were scored in 60% of games.
Head-to-Head
In the last five direct league encounters, there have been 5 matches. Lazio recorded 3 wins, while Sassuolo achieved 1 win. One match ended in a draw. The goal difference is 7:2 in favor of Lazio. The last encounter on September 14, 2025, saw Sassuolo win away with a 1-0 score.
Key Players
For Lazio, Danilo Cataldi (3 goals, 3 assists) and Gustav Isaksen (3 goals, 1 assist) are important attacking players. Mattia Zaccagni (3 goals) is also a key player. For Sassuolo, Domenico Berardi (7 goals, 3 assists) and Armand Laurienté (4 goals, 7 assists) are crucial for the offense. Ismaël Koné (5 goals) also contributes significantly to the goal threat. Not nominated for Sassuolo are Andrea Pinamonti (6G/3A) and Nemanja Matic (1G/1A), which reduces the usual starting eleven strength to 79%.
Goalkeepers
Lazio's goalkeeper is Edoardo Motta. Lazio has kept a total of 12 clean sheets this season. For Sassuolo, Arijanet Murić is in goal. Sassuolo has recorded 6 clean sheets this season.
Influences
Lazio's home goals average 0.95 per game, while goals conceded are at 0.84. Sassuolo scores an average of 1.31 goals away from home and concedes 1.23 goals. At the Stadio Olimpico, an average of 3.4 goals are scored per game, and both teams score in 40% of matches. Over 2.5 goals were scored in 60% of games.