Serie A
Atalanta - Udinese
03/07/2026, 05:00 PM
Expected Goals
2.2
3.2
1.0
2:0
10%1:1
10%2:1
10%3:0
7%3:1
7%What influences the xG?
Atalanta
Udinese
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
64%
Draw
21%
Away Win
14%
Goals
Over 1.5
84%
Under 1.5
16%
Over 2.5
63%
Under 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
40%
Under 3.5
60%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
86%
Away or Draw
36%
No Draw
79%
Both Score
Yes
57%
No
43%
Key Factors
- Pipeline Prediction: The mathematical analysis projects a 64% home win for Atalanta
- Home Strength: Atalanta boasts a solid home offense (Avg. 1.38 goals) and defense (Avg. 0.69 goals conceded)
- Form and Tactics: Atalanta shows a positive form trend with higher goal production (1.8) compared to the season average (1.6)
Risk Factors
- Atalanta has only 3 days of rest since their last match
- Udinese averages only 3.4 shots on target (Tactical Metrics)
Overview
Atalanta (7th place, 45 points) host Udinese (10th place, 35 points) at the Gewiss Stadium
Serie A match on March 7, 2026, 6:00 PM
Atalanta are fighting for international spots, while Udinese are in the mid-table
Form
Atalanta's form in the last 5 games: LWWLD (2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses)
The last result was a draw against Lazio
Udinese's form in the last 5 games: WLLLW (2 wins, 0 draws, 3 losses)
The last result was a win against Fiorentina
Atalanta's form trend shows more goals recently (1.8) compared to their season average (1.6)
Statistics
Atalanta scored an average of 1.37 goals per game and conceded an average of 0.89 goals per game this season
At home, they average 1.38 goals scored and 0.69 goals conceded per home game
Udinese scored an average of 1.15 goals per game and conceded an average of 1.44 goals per game
Away from home, they average 1.15 goals scored and 1.62 goals conceded per away game
The Gewiss Stadium sees an average of 3.6 goals per game
Both teams scored in 3 of 5 games, and over 2.5 goals were scored in all 5 games
Head-to-Head
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Atalanta secured 2 wins, Udinese 1 win, and there were 2 draws
Atalanta scored 5 goals, Udinese 3 goals
The last encounter on November 1, 2025, ended in a 0-1 loss for Atalanta
Atalanta has been dominant in recent encounters
Key Players
For Atalanta: Gianluca Scamacca (6 goals, 1 assist), Mario Pašalić (3 goals, 4 assists), Nicola Zalewski (2 goals, 3 assists)
For Udinese: Keinan Davis (8 goals, 3 assists), Nicolò Zaniolo (5 goals, 3 assists), Jurgen Ekkelenkamp (3 goals, 1 assist, rising form trend)
Goalkeepers
Atalanta's goalkeeper Marco Carnesecchi has 10 clean sheets
Udinese's goalkeeper Maduka Okoye has 6 clean sheets
Influences
Atalanta shows a solid performance at home with an average of 1.38 home goals scored and 0.69 home goals conceded
The Gewiss Stadium averages 3.6 goals per game
Both teams scored in 60% of matches, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 100% of matches