Serie A
Lazio - AC Milan
03/15/2026, 07:45 PM
Expected Goals
1.0
2.8
1.8
1:1
12%0:2
10%1:2
10%0:3
6%1:3
6%What influences the xG?
Lazio
AC Milan
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
19%
Draw
25%
Away Win
56%
Goals
Over 1.5
79%
Under 1.5
21%
Over 2.5
54%
Under 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
31%
Under 3.5
69%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
44%
Away or Draw
81%
No Draw
75%
Both Score
Yes
54%
No
46%
Key Factors
- AC Milan is favored to win with a 56% probability according to mathematical analysis
- AC Milan holds 2nd place in the league and boasts a strong away defense with an average of 0.56 goals conceded
- AC Milan's current form with 3 wins from 5 games is better than Lazio's (1 win from 5 games)
Risk Factors
- Lazio is missing Danilo Cataldi (3 goals/3 assists), leaving only 63% of the usual goal threat available
- AC Milan must do without A. Rabiot (4 goals/4 assists) due to a yellow card suspension
- Both teams show a negative form trend in goal production according to advanced statistics
Overview
Lazio (10th place, 37 points) host AC Milan (2nd place, 60 points) at the Stadio Olimpico. The Serie A match takes place on March 15, 2026, 8:45 PM. While Milan is fighting for a top spot, Lazio is in the middle of the table.
Form
Lazio's form in the last five games is LDLDW (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss). The team recorded 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses. Lazio won their last match. AC Milan's recent form is WDLWW, with 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss. Milan won their last two games consecutively. According to advanced statistics, Lazio's goal production is currently stagnating at 1.0 goals, while the season average is 1.2. AC Milan's goal production is also stagnating at 1.2 goals compared to their season average of 1.6 goals.
Statistics
Lazio has scored an average of 1.0 goals per game and conceded 1.0 goals per game this season. At their home ground, Stadio Olimpico, the average is 1.0 goals scored per home game and 0.85 goals conceded. AC Milan, on the other hand, has a stronger offense with an average of 1.57 goals per game and conceded only 0.71 goals per game. Away from home, Milan scored an average of 1.56 goals and conceded just 0.56 goals per game. The Stadio Olimpico has seen an average of 3.6 total goals per game in the last five matches. Both teams scored in 3 of 5 games, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 4 of 5 games.
Head-to-Head
In the last five direct encounters, there has been an even record with 2 wins each for Lazio and AC Milan, and 1 draw. Both teams scored 5 goals each in these matches. The last meeting on December 4, 2025, was won by Lazio at home with a score of 1:0.
Key Players
For Lazio, Mattia Zaccagni (3 goals, 0 assists, avg 7.01) and Daniel Maldini (1 goal, 1 assist, avg 7.07) are in the squad. Daniel Maldini shows a rising form trend with 1 goal in the last 5 games (avg 7.42). Gustav Isaksen contributed 3 goals and 1 assist (avg 6.78). For AC Milan, Rafael Leão (9 goals, 2 assists, avg 7.07), Christian Pulisic (8 goals, 2 assists, avg 7.18), and Luka Modrić (2 goals, 3 assists, avg 7.39) are key players. Luka Modrić scored 1 goal in his last 5 appearances and shows a rising form trend (avg 7.78).
Goalkeepers
Edoardo Motta will be in goal for Lazio, having played 1 game this season. Lazio achieved 12 clean sheets this season. For AC Milan, Mike Maignan will be in goal, having featured in 27 season games. AC Milan recorded 13 clean sheets.
Influences
The Stadio Olimpico has seen an average of 3.6 total goals per game in the last five matches. Both teams scored in 60% of games, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 80% of games. Lazio scored an average of 1.0 home goals and conceded 0.85 home goals. AC Milan scored 1.56 away goals and conceded only 0.56 goals per away game.