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Serie A

Inter - Atalanta

03/14/2026, 02:00 PM

1 : 1
Expected Goals
Inter
2.5
Total xG
3.5
Atalanta
1.0
Most Likely Scores

2:1

9%

3:1

8%

3:0

8%

4:1

5%

2:2

5%
What influences the xG?
INTATA

Inter

Attack strength (1.75x league average)
+1.67
Defensive strength (0.9 conceded vs 1.3 league avg)
-0.41
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.36
Declining form (1.2 vs 2.2 season average)
-0.28
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
Standings advantage (pos 1 vs 7, 6 places gap)
+0.07
Alessandro Bastoni on the bench (1 goals, 4 assists)
Luis Henrique on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists)
Henrikh Mkhitaryan on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists)

Atalanta

3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match)
+0.11
Rising form (2 vs 1.6 season average)
+0.11
Defensive weakness (1.2 conceded vs 1.1 league avg)
+0.07
Standings disadvantage (pos 7 vs 1, 6 places gap)
-0.07
C. De Ketelaere on the bench (3 goals, 3 assists)
17% of goal output missing (only 82% available)
Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

68%

Draw

19%

Away Win

13%

Goals

Over 1.5

88%

Under 1.5

12%

Over 2.5

69%

Under 2.5

31%

Over 3.5

47%

Under 3.5

53%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

87%

Away or Draw

32%

No Draw

81%

Both Score

Yes

60%

No

40%

Key Factors
  • Pipeline prediction: The mathematical analysis shows a high probability of 68% for an Inter home win
  • Head-to-head dominance: Inter won all 5 direct encounters with a goal difference of 13:1
  • Home strength: Inter scores an average of 2.24 goals at home and concedes only 0.71 goals
Risk Factors
  • Inter's goal production is currently slowing down with Avg. 1.3 goals, compared to the season average of Avg. 2.2 goals
  • Atalanta is currently scoring more frequently with Avg. 2.0 goals, compared to the season average of Avg. 1.6 goals
Overview

Inter (1st place, 67 points) host Atalanta (7th place, 46 points) at the Stadio Giuseppe Meazza

Serie A match on March 14, 2026, 3:00 PM

Inter are clear league leaders and aim to extend their lead

Form

Inter's form in the last five games is WLWDL

This means 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses in this period

According to advanced statistics, Inter's goal production is currently slowing down (Avg. 1.3 goals), while the season average is Avg. 2.2 goals

Atalanta's form in the last five matches is WLDDL

Atalanta recorded 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses during this time

The team is currently scoring more frequently (Avg. 2.0 goals) than their season average (Avg. 1.6 goals)

Statistics

Inter scores an average of 2.29 goals per game and concedes 0.79 goals

At home, they are also strong offensively with an average of 2.24 goals scored and defensively solid with 0.71 goals conceded

Atalanta has a season average of 1.39 goals scored and 0.93 goals conceded

Away from home, Atalanta's goal average is 1.36 and goals conceded is 1.18 per game

Inter kept 15 clean sheets so far, Atalanta 10

At this venue, an average of 1.8 goals per game were scored

In 40% of the last matches at this venue, both teams scored, and in 20% over 2.5 goals were scored

Head-to-Head

Inter completely dominated the last 5 head-to-head matches

Inter won all 5 encounters, while Atalanta secured no wins and there were no draws

The goal difference of 13:1 clearly favors Inter

The last meeting on December 28, 2025, ended with a 1-0 away win for Inter

Key Players

For Inter, Federico Dimarco (6 goals, 14 assists), Marcus Thuram (7 goals, 3 assists), and Nicolò Barella (1 goal, 5 assists) are key performers

For Atalanta, Gianluca Scamacca (8 goals, 1 assist), Mario Pašalić (3 goals, 4 assists), and Nicola Zalewski (2 goals, 4 assists) stand out

Not nominated for Inter are Alessandro Bastoni (1G/4A), Luis Henrique (1G/2A), and Henrikh Mkhitaryan (2G/1A)

For Atalanta, C. De Ketelaere (3G/3A) is not nominated

Goalkeepers

Inter goalkeeper Yann Sommer recorded 15 clean sheets this season

Atalanta goalkeeper Marco Carnesecchi kept a clean sheet in 10 matches

Influences

Inter holds a home advantage with an average of 2.24 goals scored and 0.71 goals conceded in their home stadium

The Stadio Giuseppe Meazza has seen an average of 1.8 goals per game in recent matches

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