🇮🇹

Serie A

Cremonese - Fiorentina

03/16/2026, 07:45 PM

1 : 4
Expected Goals
Cremonese
1.0
Total xG
2.6
Fiorentina
1.6
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

1:2

10%

0:2

9%

2:1

6%

1:3

5%
What influences the xG?
CREFIO

Cremonese

Defensive weakness (1.7 conceded vs 1.3 league avg)
+0.44
Attack weakness (0.55x league average)
-0.39
5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.4 goals/match)
-0.17
Declining form (0.5 vs 1 season average)
-0.14
Jamie Vardy not in squad (5 goals, 1 assists)
Federico Baschirotto not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists)
45% of goal output missing (only 56% available)

Fiorentina

Attack strength (1.29x league average)
+0.72
Defensive weakness (1.6 conceded vs 1.1 league avg)
+0.42
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.12
Declining form (1 vs 1.4 season average)
-0.12
Moise Kean on the bench (8 goals, 1 assists)
Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

22%

Draw

28%

Away Win

50%

Goals

Over 1.5

76%

Under 1.5

24%

Over 2.5

49%

Under 2.5

51%

Over 3.5

27%

Under 3.5

73%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

50%

Away or Draw

78%

No Draw

72%

Both Score

Yes

53%

No

47%

Key Factors
  • Pipeline prediction: Fiorentina is favored with a 50% win probability
  • Head-to-head: Fiorentina dominated the last 5 direct encounters with 4 wins and 1 draw
  • Current form: Cremonese shows poor form with 0 wins and 4 losses in the last 5 games
Risk Factors
  • Cremonese: Only 56% of the usual starting XI's goal threat is available without Jamie Vardy (5G/1A) and Federico Baschirotto (2G/0A)
  • Fiorentina: Only 4 days rest since the last match
  • Fiorentina concedes an average of 2.09 goals per away game
Overview

Cremonese (18th place, 24 points) host Fiorentina (17th place, 25 points) at Stadio Giovanni Zini

Serie A match on March 16, 2026, 8:45 PM

Both teams are battling in the lower part of the table for crucial points in the relegation fight

Form

Cremonese shows poor form in the last five games with 0 wins, 1 draw, and 4 losses (Form: LDLLL)

The last match ended in a loss

Fiorentina recorded 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses in their last five games (Form: WLLDW)

Fiorentina won their last match

Statistics

Cremonese scored an average of 0.79 goals per game this season and conceded 1.43 goals

At home, Cremonese averages 0.79 goals scored and 1.21 goals conceded

Fiorentina averages 1.07 goals scored and 1.50 goals conceded per game

Away from home, Fiorentina averages 1.09 goals scored and 2.09 goals conceded

Cremonese had both teams scoring in 12 matches, Fiorentina in 18 matches

The Stadio Giovanni Zini recorded an average of 1.6 goals per game in 5 matches

In 1 of 5 matches, both teams scored, and in 1 of 5 matches, more than 2.5 goals were scored

Head-to-Head

In 5 direct encounters, Cremonese has 0 wins, Fiorentina has 4 wins, and there was 1 draw

Cremonese scored 2 goals, while Fiorentina scored 8 goals

The last encounter on January 4, 2026, ended with a 1-0 victory for Fiorentina

Key Players

Cremonese: Federico Bonazzoli (6 goals, 2 assists) and Morten Thorsby (1 goal, 0 assists)

Sebastiano Luperto contributed 1 assist

Fiorentina: Rolando Mandragora (6 goals, 1 assist) and Albert Gudmundsson (4 goals, 3 assists)

Nicolò Fagioli with 1 goal and 3 assists

Goalkeepers

Cremonese goalkeeper Emil Audero has an average rating of 7.1 this season and 7 clean sheets

Including 4 home clean sheets

Fiorentina goalkeeper David de Gea has an average rating of 6.7 and 5 clean sheets

Including 2 away clean sheets

Influences

Cremonese scores an average of 0.79 goals at home and concedes 1.21 goals

The Stadio Giovanni Zini has recorded an average of 1.6 goals per game in the last 5 matches

In the last 5 matches at Stadio Giovanni Zini, both teams scored in only 1 game and more than 2.5 goals were scored in only 1 game

Ready to Get Started?

Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.