Serie A
Pisa - Cagliari
03/15/2026, 02:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.3
2.5
1.3
1:1
14%1:2
8%2:1
8%0:2
7%2:0
6%What influences the xG?
Pisa
Cagliari
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
34%
Draw
30%
Away Win
36%
Goals
Over 1.5
74%
Under 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
47%
Under 2.5
53%
Over 3.5
25%
Under 3.5
75%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
64%
Away or Draw
66%
No Draw
70%
Both Score
Yes
53%
No
47%
Key Factors
- Pisa's extreme home weakness with only 0.67 goals scored and 2.83 goals conceded per home game
- Cagliari's offensive losses: Sebastiano Esposito (4 goals, 5 assists) is suspended, impacting 21% of goal production
- The mathematical analysis predicts a close match with a home win probability of 34% and an away win of 36%
Risk Factors
- Cagliari's reduced offensive strength (79% of usual starting XI strength) without Sebastiano Esposito
- Both teams show a low number of shots on target per game (Pisa 2.2, Cagliari 2.2)
Overview
Pisa (20th place, 15 points) hosts Cagliari (15th place, 30 points) in Serie A. The match takes place on March 15, 2026, 3:00 PM, at the Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani. Pisa is in the relegation battle and currently last in the league, while Cagliari is just above the relegation zone and needs important points
Form
Pisa's form in the last five games (DLLLL) shows a streak of four losses and one draw. Their last win was a long time ago. Cagliari also shows weak form with LLDDL in their last five matches, including three losses and two draws. W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Statistics
Pisa has scored an average of 0.71 goals per game this season and conceded 1.71 goals. At home, they average 0.67 goals scored and an alarming 2.83 goals conceded per home game. Cagliari has a season average of 1.07 goals scored and 1.36 goals conceded. Away from home, Cagliari scores 1.08 goals and concedes 1.62 goals. In the Arena Garibaldi, the last five matches saw an average of 2.6 goals. Both teams scored in 60% of the games, and 60% ended with over 2.5 goals
Head-to-Head
In the four previous head-to-head matches, there have been three draws and one away win for Cagliari. Pisa has not won any of these direct encounters. Cagliari scored six goals, while Pisa recorded four goals in these meetings. The last clash in December 2025 ended in a 2-2 draw. Cagliari has been more dominant in recent head-to-head duels
Key Players
For Pisa, Stefano Moreo stands out with 5 goals and 1 assist, as does Mehdi Léris with 1 goal and 3 assists. Michel Aebischer shows rising form with 1 goal, 1 assist, and a rating of 6.84. For Cagliari, Marco Palestra with 1 goal and 4 assists, and Gianluca Gaetano with 2 goals and 3 assists are key players. Semih Kılıçsoy scored 4 goals and shows good form with 0.65 goals per 90 minutes in his last 5 games
Goalkeepers
Pisa's goalkeeper is NĂcolas, who achieved an average rating of 6.59 in four season appearances. The team kept five clean sheets this season. Cagliari's goalkeeper is Elia Caprile, who has an average rating of 6.99 in 28 appearances. His team kept six clean sheets
Influences
Pisa's home goals per game are 0.67, and home goals conceded are 2.83, indicating significant home weakness. The stadium itself averages 2.6 goals per game, with a BTTS rate of 60% and an Over 2.5 rate of 60%. The grass surface is familiar to both teams