Serie A
Sassuolo - Bologna
03/15/2026, 02:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.0
2.2
1.3
1:1
15%0:0
13%0:1
12%1:0
9%0:2
8%What influences the xG?
Sassuolo
Bologna
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
27%
Draw
32%
Away Win
41%
Goals
Over 1.5
67%
Under 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
38%
Under 2.5
62%
Over 3.5
19%
Under 3.5
81%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
59%
Away or Draw
73%
No Draw
68%
Both Score
Yes
46%
No
54%
Key Factors
- Pipeline prediction: Bologna is considered a slight favorite with a win probability of 41%
- Form comparison: Sassuolo's form trend shows a positive development, while Bologna's goal production is stalling
- Head-to-head record: Bologna has not lost any of the last 5 direct encounters against Sassuolo (2 wins, 3 draws)
Risk Factors
- Short recovery time: Bologna had only 3 days of rest since their last match
- Bologna: Goal production is currently stalling at 1.0 compared to the season average of 1.5
Overview
Sassuolo (9th place, 38 points) host Bologna (8th place, 39 points) at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore. Serie A match on March 15, 2026, 3:00 PM. Both teams are closely matched in the league table and are competing for a better mid-table position
Form
Sassuolo's form across all competitions is LWWWL (3 wins, 0 draws, 2 losses). The last match ended in a loss. Sassuolo's recent form trend is positive, as they are currently scoring more often (1.6) than their season average (1.2).
Bologna's form across all competitions is WWWLD (3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss). The last match was a draw. Bologna's recent form trend is negative; their goal production is currently stalling (1.0) compared to their season average (1.5)
Statistics
Sassuolo scores an average of 1.25 goals per game and concedes 1.36 goals. At home, they score 1.21 goals and concede 1.43 goals. They kept 6 clean sheets.
Bologna scores an average of 1.32 goals and concedes 1.21 goals. Away, they score 1.35 times and concede 1.06 goals per game. Bologna has achieved 8 clean sheets.
At MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore, an average of 3.0 goals were scored in the last 5 games. Both teams scored in 1 of 5 games, and more than 2.5 goals were scored in 4 of 5 games.
The pipeline analysis predicts 0.97 expected home goals for Sassuolo and 1.25 expected away goals for Bologna. The probability of over 1.5 goals being scored is 67%
Head-to-Head
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Sassuolo has no wins. Bologna won 2 games, and 3 matches ended in a draw.
The goal difference is 5:10 in favor of Bologna. The last encounter on December 28, 2025, ended in a 1:1 draw. Bologna has shown more dominance in recent meetings
Key Players
For Sassuolo, key attacking players are Domenico Berardi (7 goals, 3 assists, Ø 7.27 rating), Armand Laurienté (5 goals, 7 assists, Ø 6.98 rating), and Andrea Pinamonti (6 goals, 3 assists, Ø 6.71 rating). Berardi and Laurienté show a declining form trend.
For Bologna, Riccardo Orsolini (7 goals, 1 assist, Ø 6.93 rating) and Nicolò Cambiaghi (3 goals, 4 assists, Ø 6.85 rating) are notable in attack. Nicolò Cambiaghi shows a stable form trend. In midfield, Nikola Moro (2 goals, Ø 6.96 rating) is relevant with a rising form trend. Not nominated for the starting eleven are Santiago Castro (7G/2A), Jens Odgaard (5G/1A), and Jonathan Rowe (1G/1A)
Goalkeepers
Sassuolo's goalkeeper Arijanet Murić has made 27 season appearances with an average rating of 7.16. The team kept 6 clean sheets.
For Bologna, Lukasz Skorupski (16 season appearances, Ø 6.71 rating) is in goal. Bologna achieved 8 clean sheets this season
Influences
Sassuolo shows an average home offense of 1.21 goals and a defense conceding 1.43 goals.
Bologna is statistically stronger away from home with 1.35 goals scored and 1.06 goals conceded.
The playing surface at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore is grass.
Sassuolo's home ground sees an average of 3.0 goals per game, with a high rate of 80% for over 2.5 goals