Serie A
Fiorentina - Inter
03/22/2026, 07:45 PM
Expected Goals
1.1
2.6
1.5
1:1
14%1:2
9%0:2
8%2:1
7%2:2
5%What influences the xG?
Fiorentina
Inter
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
26%
Draw
29%
Away Win
45%
Goals
Over 1.5
75%
Under 1.5
25%
Over 2.5
49%
Under 2.5
52%
Over 3.5
27%
Under 3.5
73%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
55%
Away or Draw
74%
No Draw
71%
Both Score
Yes
54%
No
46%
Key Factors
- Inter has a high win probability of 45% and 1.51 expected goals according to mathematical analysis
- Inter's league dominance with 68 points and a strong goal difference of 65:23
- Fiorentina's positive form with three consecutive wins
Risk Factors
- Fiorentina has only 3 days of rest since their last match
- Inter currently shows a negative form trend and a stagnating goal production (1.0 goals per game)
- Fiorentina's offense shows only average efficiency with an average of 3.4 shots on target
Overview
Fiorentina (16th place, 28 points) host Inter (1st place, 68 points) at the Stadio Artemio Franchi
Serie A match on March 22, 2026, 8:45 PM
Inter aims to consolidate its league lead, while Fiorentina needs points to avoid relegation
Form
Fiorentina's last five games show a form of LDWWW (3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss)
The last result was a win
The team has achieved three consecutive wins
Inter's form in the last five games is LWDLD (1 win, 2 draws, 2 losses)
The last result was a draw
Inter's goal production is currently slowing down (1.0 goals per game) compared to their season average (2.2 goals per game)
Fiorentina is currently scoring more frequently (2.0 goals per game) than their season average (1.5 goals per game)
Statistics
Fiorentina averages 1.17 goals scored and 1.48 goals conceded per game
Inter displays a strong offense with an average of 2.24 goals per game and a solid defense with only 0.79 goals conceded per game
Fiorentina has 5 clean sheets this season, Inter has 15
The Stadio Artemio Franchi sees an average of 2.8 goals per game
In 3 out of 5 games at the stadium, both teams scored, and there were more than 2.5 goals
Head-to-Head
In 5 head-to-head matches, Fiorentina has 1 win and Inter has 4 wins
Inter scored 10 goals and Fiorentina scored 4 goals
The last encounter on October 29, 2025, ended with a 0:3 away win for Inter
Inter has shown dominance in recent meetings
Key Players
For Fiorentina, Moise Kean (8 goals, 1 assist), Albert Gudmundsson (5 goals, 4 assists), and Nicolò Fagioli (1 goal, 3 assists) are crucial
For Inter, Federico Dimarco (6 goals, 14 assists), Hakan Çalhanoğlu (8 goals, 2 assists), and Marcus Thuram (7 goals, 3 assists) are notable
Goalkeepers
In goal for Fiorentina is David de Gea, who has achieved 5 clean sheets in 29 season appearances
Inter relies on Yann Sommer, who kept 15 clean sheets in 27 games
Influences
Fiorentina averages 1.2 home goals scored and 1.27 home goals conceded
Inter averages 2.17 away goals scored and concedes only 0.83 goals away
The Stadio Artemio Franchi is known for high-scoring matches with an average of 2.8 goals per game
In 3 out of 5 games at the stadium, both teams scored and there were over 2.5 goals