Serie A
Cagliari - Napoli
03/20/2026, 05:30 PM
Expected Goals
0.8
2.5
1.7
0:1
13%1:1
13%0:2
12%0:0
10%1:2
9%What influences the xG?
Cagliari
Napoli
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
16%
Draw
27%
Away Win
57%
Goals
Over 1.5
72%
Under 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
45%
Under 2.5
55%
Over 3.5
24%
Under 3.5
76%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
43%
Away or Draw
84%
No Draw
73%
Both Score
Yes
46%
No
54%
Key Factors
- Mathematical prediction: Napoli has a 57% win probability and an 84% chance of not losing
- Form: Napoli is in top form with 3 consecutive wins, while Cagliari recorded 3 losses and 2 draws in their last 5 games
- History: Napoli dominated head-to-head matches with 3 wins and 2 draws, with a 9:2 goal difference in 5 encounters
Risk Factors
- Cagliari's offense is weak in recent form, with only an average of 0.8 shots on target
- Extensive injury lists for both teams could impact game quality and tactics
Overview
Cagliari (15th place, 30 points) hosts Napoli (3rd place, 59 points) at the Sardegna Arena
Serie A match on March 20, 2026, 6:30 PM
Cagliari is fighting against relegation, while Napoli needs crucial points for the top of the table
Form
Cagliari's current form (LDDLL) across all competitions shows 0 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses
Their last five results are a 1-3 loss against Pisa, a 1-2 loss against Como, a 1-1 draw against Parma, a 0-0 draw against Lazio, and a 0-2 loss against Lecce
Napoli has a form of DLWWW, with 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss
Napoli's last five results include 2-1 wins against Lecce, Torino, and Hellas Verona, a 1-2 loss against Atalanta, and a 2-2 draw against Roma
Napoli has won their last 3 games (consecutiveType: W)
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Statistics
Cagliari scores an average of 1.07 goals per game and concedes 1.41 goals per game this season
In home games, the average is 1.07 goals scored and 1.13 goals conceded
Napoli scores an average of 1.55 goals per game and concedes 1.03 goals per game
Away from home, the average is 1.54 goals scored and 1.31 goals conceded
Cagliari's goal production is currently stagnating at 0.8 goals, while the season average is 1.2 goals
Napoli is currently scoring more frequently (1.8 goals) than their season average (1.6 goals)
The Sardegna Arena records an average of 2.0 goals per game
Both teams scored in 1 of 5 games, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 2 of 5 games
Head-to-Head
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Napoli recorded 3 wins and 2 draws, while Cagliari secured none
The goal difference of 9:2 clearly favors Napoli
The last encounter on December 3, 2025, ended in a 1-1 draw
Napoli has been the more dominant team in recent meetings
Key Players
For Cagliari, Sebastiano Esposito stands out with 4 goals and 5 assists, Gianluca Gaetano with 2 goals and 3 assists, and Michael Folorunsho with 2 goals
Michael Folorunsho shows a rising form with 1 goal in the last 5 games
Yerry Mina also shows a rising form with a rating improvement of 1.01
Napoli can rely on Rasmus Højland, who contributed 10 goals and 2 assists, as well as Scott McTominay with 6 goals and 3 assists
Scott McTominay is in rising form with 1 goal in his last 5 games
Goalkeepers
Elia Caprile of Cagliari made 29 appearances this season and kept 6 clean sheets
For Napoli, Alex Meret was in goal for 9 games and achieved 5 clean sheets
Influences
Cagliari scored 1.07 goals at home and conceded 1.13 goals per game
Napoli scored 1.54 goals away and conceded 1.31 goals per game
The Sardegna Arena has a statistic of 2.0 goals per game
In 1 of 5 games at the arena, both teams scored, and in 2 of 5 games, more than 2.5 goals were scored