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Serie A

Cagliari - Napoli

03/20/2026, 05:30 PM

0 : 1
Expected Goals
Cagliari
0.8
Total xG
2.5
Napoli
1.7
Most Likely Scores

0:1

13%

1:1

13%

0:2

12%

0:0

10%

1:2

9%
What influences the xG?
CAGNAP

Cagliari

Attack weakness (0.54x league average)
-0.57
5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match)
-0.19
Defensive weakness (1.5 conceded vs 1.3 league avg)
+0.17
Declining form (0.8 vs 1.2 season average)
-0.14
Standings disadvantage (pos 15 vs 3, 12 places gap)
-0.11
Semih Kılıçsoy on the bench (4 goals, 0 assists)
Adam Obert not in squad (0 goals, 3 assists)

Napoli

Attack strength (1.28x league average)
+0.61
Standings advantage (pos 3 vs 15, 12 places gap)
+0.10
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match)
+0.07
Eljif Elmas not in squad (1 goals, 3 assists)
Antonio Vergara not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists)
Stanislav Lobotka not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists)
Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

16%

Draw

27%

Away Win

57%

Goals

Over 1.5

72%

Under 1.5

28%

Over 2.5

45%

Under 2.5

55%

Over 3.5

24%

Under 3.5

76%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

43%

Away or Draw

84%

No Draw

73%

Both Score

Yes

46%

No

54%

Key Factors
  • Mathematical prediction: Napoli has a 57% win probability and an 84% chance of not losing
  • Form: Napoli is in top form with 3 consecutive wins, while Cagliari recorded 3 losses and 2 draws in their last 5 games
  • History: Napoli dominated head-to-head matches with 3 wins and 2 draws, with a 9:2 goal difference in 5 encounters
Risk Factors
  • Cagliari's offense is weak in recent form, with only an average of 0.8 shots on target
  • Extensive injury lists for both teams could impact game quality and tactics
Overview

Cagliari (15th place, 30 points) hosts Napoli (3rd place, 59 points) at the Sardegna Arena

Serie A match on March 20, 2026, 6:30 PM

Cagliari is fighting against relegation, while Napoli needs crucial points for the top of the table

Form

Cagliari's current form (LDDLL) across all competitions shows 0 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses

Their last five results are a 1-3 loss against Pisa, a 1-2 loss against Como, a 1-1 draw against Parma, a 0-0 draw against Lazio, and a 0-2 loss against Lecce

Napoli has a form of DLWWW, with 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss

Napoli's last five results include 2-1 wins against Lecce, Torino, and Hellas Verona, a 1-2 loss against Atalanta, and a 2-2 draw against Roma

Napoli has won their last 3 games (consecutiveType: W)

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Cagliari scores an average of 1.07 goals per game and concedes 1.41 goals per game this season

In home games, the average is 1.07 goals scored and 1.13 goals conceded

Napoli scores an average of 1.55 goals per game and concedes 1.03 goals per game

Away from home, the average is 1.54 goals scored and 1.31 goals conceded

Cagliari's goal production is currently stagnating at 0.8 goals, while the season average is 1.2 goals

Napoli is currently scoring more frequently (1.8 goals) than their season average (1.6 goals)

The Sardegna Arena records an average of 2.0 goals per game

Both teams scored in 1 of 5 games, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 2 of 5 games

Head-to-Head

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Napoli recorded 3 wins and 2 draws, while Cagliari secured none

The goal difference of 9:2 clearly favors Napoli

The last encounter on December 3, 2025, ended in a 1-1 draw

Napoli has been the more dominant team in recent meetings

Key Players

For Cagliari, Sebastiano Esposito stands out with 4 goals and 5 assists, Gianluca Gaetano with 2 goals and 3 assists, and Michael Folorunsho with 2 goals

Michael Folorunsho shows a rising form with 1 goal in the last 5 games

Yerry Mina also shows a rising form with a rating improvement of 1.01

Napoli can rely on Rasmus Højland, who contributed 10 goals and 2 assists, as well as Scott McTominay with 6 goals and 3 assists

Scott McTominay is in rising form with 1 goal in his last 5 games

Goalkeepers

Elia Caprile of Cagliari made 29 appearances this season and kept 6 clean sheets

For Napoli, Alex Meret was in goal for 9 games and achieved 5 clean sheets

Influences

Cagliari scored 1.07 goals at home and conceded 1.13 goals per game

Napoli scored 1.54 goals away and conceded 1.31 goals per game

The Sardegna Arena has a statistic of 2.0 goals per game

In 1 of 5 games at the arena, both teams scored, and in 2 of 5 games, more than 2.5 goals were scored

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