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Serie A

Juventus - Sassuolo

03/21/2026, 07:45 PM

1 : 1
Expected Goals
Juventus
1.9
Total xG
3.0
Sassuolo
1.0
Most Likely Scores

1:1

12%

2:1

10%

2:0

10%

3:1

6%

3:0

6%
What influences the xG?
JUVSAS

Juventus

Attack strength (1.49x league average)
+0.83
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match)
+0.09
Standings advantage (pos 5 vs 11, 6 places gap)
+0.06
Jonathan David on the bench (5 goals, 4 assists)

Sassuolo

3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match)
+0.12
Rising form (1.6 vs 1.2 season average)
+0.12
Standings disadvantage (pos 11 vs 5, 6 places gap)
-0.07
Armand Laurienté on the bench (5 goals, 7 assists)
Kristian Thorstvedt not in squad (3 goals, 3 assists)
21% of goal output missing (only 76% available)
Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

57%

Draw

25%

Away Win

19%

Goals

Over 1.5

81%

Under 1.5

19%

Over 2.5

57%

Under 2.5

43%

Over 3.5

35%

Under 3.5

66%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

81%

Away or Draw

43%

No Draw

75%

Both Score

Yes

57%

No

43%

Key Factors
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a high probability of a home win for Juventus with 57%
  • Juventus shows rising form with 2 consecutive wins, while Sassuolo recently recorded 2 consecutive losses
  • Sassuolo is missing key attacking players Armand Laurienté (5G/7A) and Kristian Thorstvedt (3G/3A), reducing their goal threat by 24%
Overview

Juventus (5th place, 53 points) host Sassuolo (11th place, 38 points) at Juventus Stadium

Serie A match on March 21, 2026, 8:45 PM

Juventus is fighting for international qualification spots

Form

Juventus' form across all competitions is LWDWW

The home team recorded 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss in their last 5 matches

Juventus currently has 2 consecutive wins

Sassuolo's form across all competitions is WWWLL

The away team registered 3 wins and 2 losses in their last 5 matches

Sassuolo has suffered 2 consecutive losses recently

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Juventus scores an average of 1.76 goals per game and concedes 0.97 goals

At home, they score 1.81 goals and concede 0.75 goals per home game

Juventus kept 11 clean sheets and scored in 14 matches, while failing to score in 6 matches

Sassuolo averages 1.21 goals per game and concedes 1.34 goals

Away from home, they score 1.20 goals and concede 1.20 goals per away game

Sassuolo kept 6 clean sheets and scored in 14 matches, while failing to score in 10 matches

Juventus Stadium has seen an average of 3.6 goals per game

Both teams scored in 2 out of 5 matches, and 4 out of 5 matches had over 2.5 goals

Head-to-Head

There have been 5 head-to-head matches between Juventus and Sassuolo

Juventus won 3 games, Sassuolo won 2, and there were 0 draws

Juventus scored a total of 11 goals, Sassuolo 5 goals

The last encounter on January 6, 2026, ended 0:3 for Juventus

Juventus has been more dominant in recent head-to-head matches

Key Players

For Juventus, the following players are noteworthy

Kenan Yıldız scored 9 goals and 6 assists in 28 appearances with an average rating of 7.56, his form is declining

Weston McKennie scored 4 goals and 4 assists in 28 appearances with an average rating of 6.99, his form is declining

Pierre Kalulu scored 2 goals and 3 assists in 28 appearances with an average rating of 7.00, his form is rising

For Sassuolo, the following players are noteworthy

Domenico Berardi scored 7 goals and 3 assists in 19 appearances with an average rating of 7.23, his form is declining

Andrea Pinamonti scored 6 goals and 3 assists in 27 appearances with an average rating of 6.75, his form is declining

Ismaël Koné scored 5 goals in 26 appearances with an average rating of 6.83, his form is declining

Goalkeepers

Juventus goalkeeper Mattia Perin has played in 6 season appearances

The Juventus defense has achieved a total of 11 clean sheets this season

Sassuolo goalkeeper Arijanet Murić has played in 28 season appearances

The Sassuolo defense has achieved a total of 6 clean sheets this season

Influences

Juventus shows strong offensive performance at home with an average of 1.81 goals scored and a stable defense with 0.75 goals conceded

At Juventus Stadium, an average of 3.6 goals are scored per game

Both teams scored in 2 out of 5 matches, and 4 out of 5 matches had over 2.5 goals

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