Serie A
Roma - Lecce
03/22/2026, 05:00 PM
Expected Goals
2.5
3.3
0.8
2:0
11%3:0
9%2:1
9%1:1
8%3:1
8%What influences the xG?
Roma
Lecce
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
73%
Draw
18%
Away Win
9%
Goals
Over 1.5
86%
Under 1.5
14%
Over 2.5
65%
Under 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
43%
Under 3.5
57%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
91%
Away or Draw
27%
No Draw
82%
Both Score
Yes
53%
No
47%
Key Factors
- Pipeline forecast: Mathematical analysis indicates a high home win probability of 73% for Roma, with 2.52 expected home goals
- Roma's home strength meets Lecce's away weakness: Roma concedes only 0.56 goals at home, Lecce scores only 0.71 goals away
- Historical dominance: Roma has won 4 out of 5 direct encounters and last won 2:0 against Lecce on January 6, 2026
Risk Factors
- Limited recovery for Roma with only 3 days since the last match
- Roma has conceded an average of 2.4 goals in recent games, significantly higher than the season average of 0.92
- Lecce shows few shots on target with an average of 2.2 shots on target, indicating low offensive threat
Overview
Roma (6th place, 51 points) host Lecce (18th place, 27 points) at the Stadio Olimpico. The Serie A match takes place on March 22, 2026, 6:00 PM. The Giallorossi are fighting for European spots, while Lecce is embroiled in a relegation battle. The mathematical analysis places Roma as clear favorites with a 73% win probability.
Form
Roma's current form across all competitions is DLDLL (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss). The last five matches resulted in 0 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses, including two consecutive losses as the latest result. Lecce shows a form of WLLWL, with 2 wins and 3 losses in their last five games. Mathematical data indicates that Roma is currently scoring more frequently (1.8 goals per game) than their season average (1.5 goals per game). Lecce is also currently scoring more frequently (1.2 goals per game) than their season average (0.9 goals per game).
Statistics
Roma has scored an average of 1.34 goals per game this season and conceded 0.79 goals per game. At home, they were stronger with an average of 1.38 goals scored and 0.56 goals conceded per home game, with 7 clean sheets at their stadium. Lecce scored an average of 0.72 goals per game and conceded 1.34 goals per game. Away, Lecce scored an average of 0.71 goals and conceded 1.43 goals per away game, with 4 clean sheets on the road. The Stadio Olimpico has seen an average of 4.2 total goals per game in the last five matches, with both teams scoring in 80% and over 2.5 goals occurring in 80% of games.
Head-to-Head
In 5 direct encounters, Roma dominates with 4 wins and 9 goals scored, compared to 0 wins and 2 goals for Lecce. There was one draw between the teams. Roma won the last encounter away with a 2:0 score on January 6, 2026.
Key Players
For Roma, the following players stand out: Donyell Malen (7 goals, 0 assists), Evan Ndicka (3 goals, 0 assists), and Lorenzo Pellegrini (3 goals, 2 assists). For Lecce, Lameck Banda (3 goals, 3 assists), Nikola Stulic (3 goals, 0 assists), and Omri Gandelman (2 goals, 0 assists) are the most important players in terms of scoring contributions.
Goalkeepers
Mile Svilar of Roma has made 29 appearances this season, with the team keeping 12 clean sheets overall. Wladimiro Falcone of Lecce has also played in 29 games, with Lecce keeping 8 clean sheets in total.
Influences
Roma benefits from a home advantage at the Stadio Olimpico, where they average 1.38 goals scored and concede only 0.56 goals. Lecce's away performance is significantly weaker, with an average of 0.71 goals scored and 1.43 goals conceded. The grass pitch at the Stadio Olimpico has recorded an average of 4.2 goals per match in the last five games, with a high probability of 80% for both teams to score and over 2.5 goals.