Serie A
AC Milan - Torino
03/21/2026, 05:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.9
2.7
0.8
2:0
13%1:1
11%2:1
10%3:0
8%3:1
6%What influences the xG?
AC Milan
Torino
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
64%
Draw
23%
Away Win
12%
Goals
Over 1.5
76%
Under 1.5
24%
Over 2.5
51%
Under 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
28%
Under 3.5
72%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
88%
Away or Draw
36%
No Draw
77%
Both Score
Yes
47%
No
53%
Key Factors
- The mathematical analysis predicts a home win for AC Milan with a probability of 64%
- AC Milan's strong defense (avg. 0.72 goals conceded) faces a weak Torino away defense (avg. 2.25 goals conceded per away game)
- AC Milan shows a currently stagnating goal production (avg. 0.8 goals recently) despite their home advantage
Risk Factors
- AC Milan is missing key offensive players Rafael Leão (9 goals, 2 assists) and Pervis Estupiñán (1 goal, 1 assist)
- Torino currently shows positive form development in goal production (avg. 1.6 goals recently)
Overview
AC Milan (3rd place, 60 points) host Torino (14th place, 33 points) at the Stadio Giuseppe Meazza
Serie A match on March 21, 2026, 6:00 PM
Milan aims to consolidate its position in the top ranks
Form
AC Milan's form across all competitions is "DLWWL" (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
The Rossoneri recorded 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses
AC Milan's goal production has stalled recently at an average of 0.8 goals, while their season average is 1.6 goals
Torino, on the other hand, shows a form of "LLWLW" with 2 wins and 3 losses
The Granata are scoring more frequently recently with an average of 1.6 goals, compared to their season average of 1.3 goals
Statistics
AC Milan has scored an average of 1.52 goals and conceded 0.72 goals per game this season
At home, they averaged 1.46 goals scored and 0.85 goals conceded
Torino averaged 1.1 goals scored and 1.72 goals conceded
Away from home, Torino conceded an average of 2.25 goals per game and scored 1.08 goals
At the Stadio Giuseppe Meazza, the last 5 games saw an average of 1.8 total goals
Both teams scored in 2 of 5 games, and 1 of 5 games ended with over 2.5 goals
Head-to-Head
In 5 direct encounters between the two teams, both AC Milan and Torino have secured 2 wins each, with 1 match ending in a draw
AC Milan scored 11 goals, while Torino scored 10
The last meeting on December 8, 2025, resulted in a 3-2 victory for AC Milan
Key Players
For AC Milan, Christian Pulisic (8 goals, 2 assists), Adrien Rabiot (4 goals, 4 assists), and Niclas Füllkrug (1 goal) are players to watch
For Torino, Nikola Vlašić (6 goals, 3 assists), Giovanni Simeone (7 goals), and Duván Zapata (3 goals, 1 assist) are key offensive contributors
Goalkeepers
AC Milan's goalkeeper Mike Maignan has achieved 13 clean sheets with his team this season
Alberto Paleari, Torino's goalkeeper, has recorded 10 clean sheets with his team
Influences
AC Milan scored an average of 1.46 goals and conceded 0.85 goals in home games, indicating a solid home performance
Torino conceded an average of 2.25 goals away from home, highlighting a vulnerability on the road
The Stadio Giuseppe Meazza has seen an average of 1.8 goals per game in the last 5 matches