Serie A
Atalanta - Hellas Verona
03/22/2026, 02:00 PM
Expected Goals
2.3
3.4
1.1
2:1
10%1:1
9%2:0
9%3:1
7%3:0
7%What influences the xG?
Atalanta
Hellas Verona
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
63%
Draw
21%
Away Win
16%
Goals
Over 1.5
87%
Under 1.5
13%
Over 2.5
67%
Under 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
45%
Under 3.5
55%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
84%
Away or Draw
37%
No Draw
79%
Both Score
Yes
62%
No
38%
Key Factors
- Pipeline prediction: The mathematical analysis predicts a home win for Atalanta with a 63% probability and 2.31 expected home goals
- Offensive-defensive matchup: Atalanta's home strength (avg. 1.41 goals) meets Hellas Verona's away weakness (avg. 2.15 goals conceded)
- Form and head-to-head record: Atalanta is 7th in the table despite recent poor form, Hellas Verona is last, and Atalanta has dominated recent H2H encounters
Risk Factors
- Atalanta's goal production is currently stagnating (1.4), compared to their season average (1.6)
- Hellas Verona's tactical approach results in few shots on target, with only 2.0 shots on target on average
- Hellas Verona concedes an average of 2.15 goals per away game
Overview
Atalanta (7th place, 47 points) hosts Hellas Verona (20th place, 18 points) at the Gewiss Stadium. The Serie A match takes place on March 22, 2026, 3:00 PM. Atalanta is aiming for European spots, while Hellas Verona urgently needs points in the relegation battle.
Form
Atalanta's form across all competitions is DDDLL (0 wins, 3 draws, 2 losses). Their last five games include a 1-4 loss away to FC Bayern München, a 1-1 draw away to Inter, a 1-6 loss at home to FC Bayern München, a 2-2 draw at home to Udinese, and a 2-2 draw away to Lazio. Hellas Verona shows a form of LLLWL (1 win, 0 draws, 4 losses). Recent results include a 0-2 loss at home to Genoa, a 2-1 win away to Bologna, a 1-2 loss at home to Napoli, a 0-3 loss away to Sassuolo, and a 1-2 loss away to Parma. (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
Statistics
Atalanta averages 1.38 goals scored and 0.93 goals conceded per game this season. At home, they average 1.41 goals scored and 0.76 goals conceded. Hellas Verona averages 0.76 goals scored and 1.76 goals conceded per match. Away from home, Hellas Verona concedes an average of 2.15 goals. Both teams scored in 16 of Atalanta's matches and in 15 of Hellas Verona's matches. The Gewiss Stadium has seen an average of 4.4 goals per game in its last five matches, with both teams scoring and over 2.5 goals being recorded in all five fixtures.
Head-to-Head
In the last five head-to-head matches, Atalanta secured 3 wins, Hellas Verona 1 win, and there was 1 draw. Atalanta scored 15 goals, while Hellas Verona scored 6 goals. The last encounter on December 6, 2025, ended in a 3-1 victory for Hellas Verona. Atalanta has shown recent dominance in these fixtures.
Key Players
Nikola Krstović is a key player for Atalanta with 8 goals and 4 assists in 25 appearances. Charles De Ketelaere contributed 3 goals and 3 assists in 22 games. Nicola Zalewski was involved in many offensive actions with 2 goals and 4 assists in 25 matches. Not nominated: Gianluca Scamacca (8G/1A), Mario Pašalić (3G/4A), Kamaldeen Sulemana (2G/2A), and Lazar Samardžić (2G/2A). For Hellas Verona, Gift Orban is the most dangerous attacker with 7 goals and 2 assists in 24 appearances. Martin Frese scored 2 goals in 23 games. Rafik Belghali was involved in 2 goals in 17 appearances.
Goalkeepers
Atalanta's goal is defended by Marco Carnesecchi, who kept 10 clean sheets this season. Hellas Verona's goalkeeper is Lorenzo Montipò, who achieved 5 clean sheets this season.
Influences
Atalanta benefits from a home advantage, averaging 1.41 goals scored and 0.76 goals conceded at the Gewiss Stadium. The stadium has proven to be high-scoring in its last five matches, with an average of 4.4 goals per game, and both teams scoring as well as over 2.5 goals being recorded in all five fixtures.