Serie A
Bologna - Lazio
03/22/2026, 02:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.3
2.1
0.8
1:1
15%1:0
14%0:0
14%2:0
10%0:1
8%What influences the xG?
Bologna
Lazio
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
45%
Draw
32%
Away Win
23%
Goals
Over 1.5
64%
Under 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
36%
Under 2.5
64%
Over 3.5
17%
Under 3.5
83%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
77%
Away or Draw
55%
No Draw
68%
Both Score
Yes
43%
No
57%
Key Factors
- Pipeline prediction: The mathematical analysis favors Bologna with a 45% win probability
- Form advantage: Bologna showed a better record in the last five games (3 wins) than Lazio (2 wins)
- Historical home advantage: Bologna has been dominant in head-to-head matches at home
Risk Factors
- Short recovery: Bologna had only 3 days of rest since their last match
- Significant absences for Lazio: 21% of usual starting XI goals and 31% of assists are missing due to the absence of Danilo Cataldi and Mattia Zaccagni
- Low shot on target efficiency: Lazio averages only 3.2 shots on target per game
Overview
Bologna (8th place, 42 points) host Lazio (9th place, 40 points) at the Stadio Renato Dall'Ara. Serie A match on March 22, 2026, 3:00 PM. The game promises a close encounter between two mid-table neighbors
Form
Bologna's form in their last five games is W-L-D-W-W
This equates to 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss
The team has won their last two matches consecutively
Lazio's form in their last five games is W-W-D-L-D
This means 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss
Lazio has also won their last two matches consecutively
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Statistics
Bologna averages 1.31 goals per game and concedes 1.17 goals
At home, Bologna scores 1.27 goals and concedes 1.45 goals per home game
Lazio averages 1.00 goal and 0.97 goals conceded per game
Away from home, Lazio scores 1.00 goal and concedes 1.38 goals per away game
The Stadio Renato Dall'Ara has seen an average of 1.8 goals per match in the last 5 games
Both teams scored (BTTS) in 3 out of 5 games, and over 2.5 goals occurred in 1 out of 5 games
Head-to-Head
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Bologna has 2 wins, Lazio has 1 win, and there have been 2 draws
Bologna scored a total of 9 goals, while Lazio scored 6 goals
The last encounter on February 11, 2026, ended in a 1-1 draw
The recent head-to-head record shows a dominance of the home team
Key Players
For Bologna, Santiago Castro (7 goals, 2 assists), Riccardo Orsolini (7 goals, 1 assist), and Nikola Moro (2 goals, 0 assists) are key players
For Lazio, Gustav Isaksen (4 goals, 1 assist), Pedro (3 goals, 1 assist), and Daniel Maldini (1 goal, 1 assist) are important to watch
Goalkeepers
Bologna's starting goalkeeper, Federico Ravaglia, has achieved 5 clean sheets in home games this season
Lazio will be without the injured I. Provedel
Edoardo Motta is listed as Lazio's starting goalkeeper and has achieved 7 clean sheets in away games
Influences
Home team Bologna averages 1.27 goals scored and 1.45 goals conceded at home
The Stadio Renato Dall'Ara has seen an average of 1.8 goals per game in the last five matches
Both teams scored in 60% of these games
The stadium's surface is grass