Serie A
Parma - Cremonese
03/21/2026, 02:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.4
2.6
1.2
1:1
14%2:1
9%2:0
7%1:2
7%0:2
5%What influences the xG?
Parma
Cremonese
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
40%
Draw
30%
Away Win
30%
Goals
Over 1.5
74%
Under 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
47%
Under 2.5
53%
Over 3.5
26%
Under 3.5
74%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
70%
Away or Draw
60%
No Draw
70%
Both Score
Yes
54%
No
46%
Key Factors
- Pipeline analysis: Parma has a 70% probability of a home win or a draw
- Form gap: Parma shows significantly better form with WWDDL than Cremonese with DLLLL
- Current goal difference: Parma scores more often recently (1.3) than their season average (1.0), while Cremonese's goal production is stagnant (0.5 compared to 1.0)
Risk Factors
- Parma scores only 0.73 goals per home game
- Cremonese's goal production is stagnant (0.5), season average is 1.0
- Cremonese has been historically more dominant in recent direct confrontations
Overview
Parma (12th place, 34 points) host Cremonese (18th place, 24 points) at the Stadio Ennio Tardini
Serie A match on March 21, 2026, 3:00 PM
Parma seeks to distance itself further from the relegation zone, while Cremonese urgently needs points in the fight against relegation
Form
Parma's last five league matches show two wins, two draws, and one loss (Form: WWDDL)
The last game ended in a loss
Cremonese has one draw and four losses in their last five matches (Form: DLLLL)
They are without a win in four consecutive games (Type: Loss)
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Statistics
Parma scores an average of 0.72 goals per game and concedes 1.24 goals per game
Cremonese has scored an average of 0.79 goals and conceded 1.52 goals
Parma's home games show an average of 0.73 goals scored and 1.27 goals conceded
Cremonese's away games feature 0.79 goals scored and 1.64 goals conceded
The Stadio Ennio Tardini has an average of 2.4 goals per game
In 60% of Parma's last five home games, both teams scored, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 40%
Head-to-Head
In the five previous head-to-head matches, Cremonese secured two wins, Parma one, with two draws
Cremonese scored seven goals, Parma five goals in these encounters
The last meeting on September 21, 2025, ended in a goalless 0-0 draw
Historically, Cremonese has been more dominant in recent direct confrontations
Key Players
For Parma, Mateo Pellegrino (8 goals, 1 assist), Alessandro Circati (1 goal), and Oliver SĆørensen (1 goal) are in the starting lineup
Not nominated: AdriƔn BernabƩ (3T/1A)
For Cremonese, Federico Bonazzoli (6 goals, 2 assists), Filippo Terracciano (2 goals), and Jari Vandeputte (4 assists) are important players in the starting formation
Not nominated: Jamie Vardy (5T/1A)
Goalkeepers
Parma's goalkeeper is Zion Suzuki
Parma's team has achieved 10 clean sheets this season
Cremonese's goalkeeper is Emil Audero
Cremonese's team has recorded 7 clean sheets this season
Influences
Parma shows an average home scoring rate of 0.73 goals and 1.27 goals conceded per home game
The Stadio Ennio Tardini averages 2.4 goals per game
On this grass surface, both teams scored in 60% of Parma's last five home games
Over 2.5 goals were scored in 40% of Parma's last five home games