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Serie A

Parma - Cremonese

03/21/2026, 02:00 PM

0 : 2
Expected Goals
Parma
1.4
Total xG
2.6
Cremonese
1.2
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

2:1

9%

2:0

7%

1:2

7%

0:2

5%
What influences the xG?
PARCRE

Parma

Defensive weakness (1.5 conceded vs 1.3 league avg)
+0.25
Attack weakness (0.65x league average)
+0.15
Rising form (1.2 vs 1 season average)
+0.07
Standings advantage (pos 12 vs 18, 6 places gap)
+0.04
AdriƔn BernabƩ not in squad (3 goals, 1 assists)
19% of goal output missing (only 97% available)
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)

Cremonese

Defensive weakness (1.8 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)
+0.68
5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.4 goals/match)
-0.17
Declining form (0.5 vs 1 season average)
-0.14
Standings disadvantage (pos 18 vs 12, 6 places gap)
-0.07
Jamie Vardy not in squad (5 goals, 1 assists)
10% of goal output missing (only 90% available)
Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

40%

Draw

30%

Away Win

30%

Goals

Over 1.5

74%

Under 1.5

26%

Over 2.5

47%

Under 2.5

53%

Over 3.5

26%

Under 3.5

74%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

70%

Away or Draw

60%

No Draw

70%

Both Score

Yes

54%

No

46%

Key Factors
  • Pipeline analysis: Parma has a 70% probability of a home win or a draw
  • Form gap: Parma shows significantly better form with WWDDL than Cremonese with DLLLL
  • Current goal difference: Parma scores more often recently (1.3) than their season average (1.0), while Cremonese's goal production is stagnant (0.5 compared to 1.0)
Risk Factors
  • Parma scores only 0.73 goals per home game
  • Cremonese's goal production is stagnant (0.5), season average is 1.0
  • Cremonese has been historically more dominant in recent direct confrontations
Overview

Parma (12th place, 34 points) host Cremonese (18th place, 24 points) at the Stadio Ennio Tardini

Serie A match on March 21, 2026, 3:00 PM

Parma seeks to distance itself further from the relegation zone, while Cremonese urgently needs points in the fight against relegation

Form

Parma's last five league matches show two wins, two draws, and one loss (Form: WWDDL)

The last game ended in a loss

Cremonese has one draw and four losses in their last five matches (Form: DLLLL)

They are without a win in four consecutive games (Type: Loss)

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Parma scores an average of 0.72 goals per game and concedes 1.24 goals per game

Cremonese has scored an average of 0.79 goals and conceded 1.52 goals

Parma's home games show an average of 0.73 goals scored and 1.27 goals conceded

Cremonese's away games feature 0.79 goals scored and 1.64 goals conceded

The Stadio Ennio Tardini has an average of 2.4 goals per game

In 60% of Parma's last five home games, both teams scored, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 40%

Head-to-Head

In the five previous head-to-head matches, Cremonese secured two wins, Parma one, with two draws

Cremonese scored seven goals, Parma five goals in these encounters

The last meeting on September 21, 2025, ended in a goalless 0-0 draw

Historically, Cremonese has been more dominant in recent direct confrontations

Key Players

For Parma, Mateo Pellegrino (8 goals, 1 assist), Alessandro Circati (1 goal), and Oliver SĆørensen (1 goal) are in the starting lineup

Not nominated: AdriƔn BernabƩ (3T/1A)

For Cremonese, Federico Bonazzoli (6 goals, 2 assists), Filippo Terracciano (2 goals), and Jari Vandeputte (4 assists) are important players in the starting formation

Not nominated: Jamie Vardy (5T/1A)

Goalkeepers

Parma's goalkeeper is Zion Suzuki

Parma's team has achieved 10 clean sheets this season

Cremonese's goalkeeper is Emil Audero

Cremonese's team has recorded 7 clean sheets this season

Influences

Parma shows an average home scoring rate of 0.73 goals and 1.27 goals conceded per home game

The Stadio Ennio Tardini averages 2.4 goals per game

On this grass surface, both teams scored in 60% of Parma's last five home games

Over 2.5 goals were scored in 40% of Parma's last five home games

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