Serie A
Inter - Roma
04/05/2026, 06:45 PM
Expected Goals
1.9
2.9
1.0
1:1
12%2:1
10%2:0
10%3:1
6%3:0
6%What influences the xG?
Inter
Roma
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
56%
Draw
25%
Away Win
19%
Goals
Over 1.5
80%
Under 1.5
20%
Over 2.5
55%
Under 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
33%
Under 3.5
67%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
81%
Away or Draw
44%
No Draw
75%
Both Score
Yes
55%
No
45%
Key Factors
- The mathematical analysis predicts a home win for Inter with 56% probability
- Inter leads the league and shows strong home offense with an average of 2.17 goals and stable defense with 0.72 goals conceded
- Inter dominated the last 5 direct duels against Roma with 4 wins and a goal difference of 7:3
Risk Factors
- Inter recorded an average of 3.0 shots on target in the last 5 games, indicating a rather subdued offense
- Roma also showed an average of only 2.6 shots on target in the last 5 games, increasing the potential for a low-scoring match
Overview
Inter (1st place, 69 points) host Roma (6th place, 54 points) at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza
Serie A match on April 5, 2026, 8:45 PM
The league leaders face a contender for European spots
Form
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Inter's form over all competitions in the last 5 games is WDLDD with 1 win, 3 draws, and 1 loss
Inter last played two consecutive draws
Inter's goal production is stagnant in recent form with an average of 1.0 goals, while the season average is 2.1 goals
Roma's form over all competitions in the last 5 games is LDLLW with 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses
Roma won their last match
Roma consistently scores around 1.4 goals per game, their form is stable
Statistics
Inter has scored an average of 2.20 goals per game this season and conceded 0.80 goals
Inter kept 15 clean sheets and in 13 matches both teams scored
Roma scored an average of 1.33 goals per game and conceded 0.77 goals
Roma kept 13 clean sheets and in 10 matches both teams scored
Inter is strong at home with an average of 2.17 goals scored and 0.72 goals conceded
Roma scores 1.31 goals per game away and concedes 1.08 goals
An average of 2.60 total goals were scored per game at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza
In 3 out of 5 matches at the stadium, both teams scored, and in 2 out of 5 matches, more than 2.5 goals were scored
Head-to-Head
In 5 head-to-head matches between Inter and Roma, Inter secured 4 wins, while Roma won 1 time
There were no draws
Inter scored a total of 7 goals in these encounters, Roma scored 3 goals
The last encounter on October 18, 2025, ended with a 1:0 victory for Inter
Inter has been dominant in recent direct duels
Key Players
Inter: Federico Dimarco with 6 goals and 14 assists this season, most recently 1 goal in 4 games
Hakan Çalhanoğlu scored 8 goals and 2 assists, with 1 goal in his last 4 appearances
Lautaro Martínez scored 14 times and provided 4 assists, most recently 1 goal in 4 games
Roma: Donyell Malen contributed 7 goals, most recently 2 goals in 5 games
Matías Soulé scored 6 goals and 4 assists this season
Lorenzo Pellegrini with 3 goals and 2 assists, recently showed a rising form with 2 goals and 1 assist in 5 games
Goalkeepers
Inter goalkeeper Yann Sommer has kept 15 clean sheets in 28 season appearances
Roma goalkeeper Mile Svilar made 30 season appearances and kept 13 clean sheets
Influences
Inter shows a strong home performance with an average of 2.17 goals scored and 0.72 goals conceded per home game
Roma scores an average of 1.31 goals and concedes 1.08 goals per away game
Stadio Giuseppe Meazza is known for an average of 2.60 goals per game
In 3 out of 5 matches at the stadium, both teams scored, and 2 out of 5 matches ended with over 2.5 goals
The match will be played on natural grass