Serie A
Lecce - Atalanta
04/06/2026, 01:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.0
2.5
1.5
1:1
14%0:1
11%0:0
10%1:2
9%0:2
9%What influences the xG?
Lecce
Atalanta
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
24%
Draw
29%
Away Win
47%
Goals
Over 1.5
73%
Under 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
45%
Under 2.5
55%
Over 3.5
24%
Under 3.5
76%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
53%
Away or Draw
76%
No Draw
71%
Both Score
Yes
51%
No
49%
Key Factors
- Pipeline Prediction: Atalanta is clearly favored with a 47% win probability
- Form and Position: Atalanta is in 7th place, Lecce is in a relegation spot and has only one win in their last five games
- Historical Dominance: Atalanta won 4 of the last 5 direct encounters against Lecce
Risk Factors
- Lecce is missing Lassana Coulibaly, Nikola Stulic, Antonino Gallo, and Omri Gandelman, with only 57% of usual goal threat available
- Lecce scored only an average of 0.69 home goals per game
- Lecce averaged only 2.0 shots on target in their last 5 games
Overview
Lecce (18th place, 27 points) will host Atalanta (7th place, 50 points) at the Stadio Comunale Via del Mare. The Serie A match is scheduled for April 6, 2026, 3:00 PM. Lecce is fighting against relegation, while Atalanta is competing for a European spot.
Form
Lecce's form in the last five matches is L-L-W-L-L, with one win and four losses. They recently suffered two consecutive defeats. Atalanta's recent form shows D-L-D-L-W, with one win, two draws, and two losses in their last five games. Atalanta won their most recent match.
Statistics
Lecce averages 0.70 goals scored per game and concedes 1.33 goals. At home, they average 0.69 goals scored and 1.19 goals conceded. Atalanta has a season average of 1.37 goals scored and 0.90 goals conceded. Away from home, Atalanta scores 1.33 goals and concedes 1.17 goals per game. At Stadio Comunale Via del Mare, the last 5 games averaged 2.2 total goals. Both teams scored in 3 of 5 games, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 3 of 5 games.
Head-to-Head
In the last 5 head-to-head encounters, Atalanta has dominated with four wins and one draw. Lecce has not managed to win any of these matches. The goal difference is clearly 12:2 in favour of Atalanta. The last meeting on September 14, 2025, ended in a 4:1 away victory for Atalanta.
Key Players
For Lecce, Lameck Banda (3 goals, 3 assists) and Tiago Gabriel (1 goal, 0 assists, avg. 6.92 rating) are key players. Jamil Siebert shows good development with one goal in his last 5 games and a rising form (avg. 6.97 rating recently). For Atalanta, Nikola Krstović is the top scorer (8 goals, 4 assists), and Charles De Ketelaere (3 goals, 3 assists, avg. 7.13 rating) is a key midfielder. Nicola Zalewski contributes to the offense with 2 goals and 4 assists.
Goalkeepers
Wladimiro Falcone, Lecce's goalkeeper, played all 30 league games this season and kept 8 clean sheets. For Atalanta, Marco Carnesecchi was in goal for 30 season games and achieved 11 clean sheets.
Influences
The home advantage for Lecce is evident in their home statistics, where they scored 11 goals and conceded 19. The playing surface at Stadio Comunale Via del Mare is grass. The venue profile shows an average of 2.2 goals per game in the last 5 matches, with both teams scoring in 3 of 5 games and over 2.5 goals in 3 of 5 games.