Serie A
Hellas Verona - Fiorentina
04/04/2026, 04:00 PM
Expected Goals
0.9
2.1
1.2
1:1
15%0:0
14%0:1
12%1:0
10%0:2
8%What influences the xG?
Hellas Verona
Fiorentina
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
28%
Draw
33%
Away Win
40%
Goals
Over 1.5
65%
Under 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
36%
Under 2.5
64%
Over 3.5
17%
Under 3.5
83%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
61%
Away or Draw
72%
No Draw
67%
Both Score
Yes
44%
No
56%
Key Factors
- Fiorentina shows significantly better current form (3 wins, 2 draws) and has a higher win probability of 39% according to mathematical analysis.
- Hellas Verona's goal production is currently stagnating (avg. 0.6 goals), while the season average is 0.9 goals.
- Fiorentina is currently scoring more frequently (avg. 2.3 goals) than their season average (avg. 1.5 goals), indicating improved offensive performance.
Risk Factors
- Hellas Verona scores only an average of 0.75 goals per game at home.
- In Fiorentina's squad, Rolando Mandragora (6 goals, 2 assists), Roberto Piccoli (3 goals, 1 assist), Dodô (1 goal, 2 assists), and Fabiano Parisi (1 goal, 1 assist) are not listed.
Overview
Hellas Verona (19th place, 18 points) host Fiorentina (16th place, 29 points) at Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi. The Serie A match takes place on April 4, 2026, 6:00 PM. Hellas Verona is fighting to stay in the league, while Fiorentina aims to distance themselves from the relegation zone.
Form
Hellas Verona shows poor form with two consecutive losses (LLWLL). In their last five matches, they recorded 1 win, 0 draws, and 4 losses.
Fiorentina is in better shape and is unbeaten in five games (DWWWD). They achieved 3 wins and 2 draws in this period.
(W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
Statistics
Hellas Verona scores an average of 0.73 goals per game this season and concedes 1.73 goals. At home, the average is 0.75 goals scored and 1.44 goals conceded. Hellas Verona kept 5 clean sheets this season, 2 of them at home. In 15 matches, both teams scored, and in 18 matches, over 2.5 goals were scored.
Fiorentina scores an average of 1.17 goals and concedes 1.47 goals. Away, they score 1.14 goals and concede 1.71 goals. Fiorentina achieved 5 clean sheets, 2 of them away. In 20 matches, both teams scored, and in 18 matches, over 2.5 goals were scored.
The Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi has seen an average of 2.8 total goals in the last 5 matches. In 3 out of 5 matches, both teams scored, and in 3 out of 5 matches, over 2.5 goals were scored.
Head-to-Head
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Hellas Verona had a slight advantage with 3 wins compared to Fiorentina's 2 wins. There were no draws. The goal difference is even at 6:6 goals.
The last encounter on December 14, 2025, ended with a 2-1 victory for Hellas Verona.
Key Players
For Hellas Verona, the following players are notable:
Gift Orban, attacker, with 7 season goals and 2 assists at an average rating of 6.8. His form has been slightly declining recently.
Jean-Daniel Akpa Akpro, midfielder, with 1 season goal and recently rising form (1 goal, 0 assists, avg 7.21 in last 5 games).
Kieron Bowie, attacker, with 1 season goal and also one goal in the last 5 games.
For Fiorentina, the following players are important:
Moise Kean, attacker, who contributed 8 goals and 1 assist this season.
Albert Gudmundsson, attacker, with 5 goals and 4 assists this season, who scored 2 goals and provided 2 assists in the last 5 games.
Cher Ndour, midfielder, who scored 3 goals and provided 1 assist in the last 5 games, showing rising form.
Goalkeepers
For Hellas Verona, Lorenzo Montipò is in goal, having achieved 5 clean sheets this season.
Fiorentina relies on David de Gea, who also recorded 5 clean sheets this season.
Influences
Hellas Verona showed an average goal output of 0.75 goals per game at home, while conceding 1.44 goals.
Fiorentina scores an average of 1.14 goals away and concedes 1.71 goals.
The Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi has an average of 2.8 total goals in the last 5 matches, with both teams scoring in 60% of games and over 2.5 goals in 60%.