Serie A
Lazio - Parma
04/04/2026, 06:45 PM
Expected Goals
1.6
2.7
1.1
1:1
13%2:1
10%2:0
9%1:2
6%3:1
5%What influences the xG?
Lazio
Parma
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
49%
Draw
28%
Away Win
23%
Goals
Over 1.5
76%
Under 1.5
24%
Over 2.5
50%
Under 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
28%
Under 3.5
72%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
77%
Away or Draw
51%
No Draw
72%
Both Score
Yes
54%
No
46%
Key Factors
- Lazio is in a positive run of form with three consecutive wins, while Parma recently suffered two losses
- The mathematical analysis predicts a home win with a 49% probability
- Lazio averages 1.05 goals at home, whereas Parma scores only 0.71 goals per game away
Risk Factors
- Parma averaged only 2.2 shots on target in their last 5 games
- The head-to-head record is even, with 1 win, 1 draw, and 1 loss for each team
- The mathematical analysis predicts a 28% probability for a draw
Overview
Lazio (8th place, 43 points) host Parma (12th place, 34 points) at the Stadio Olimpico
Serie A match on April 4, 2026, 8:45 PM
The match promises a mid-table clash
Form
Lazio's form across all competitions is LDWWW (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
The home team recorded 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss in their last 5 matches
They have achieved three consecutive wins recently
Parma shows a form of WDDLL
The visitors managed 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses in their last 5 matches
They have suffered two consecutive losses recently
Statistics
Lazio scores an average of 1.03 goals and concedes 0.93 goals per game this season
At home, Lazio scores an average of 1.05 goals and concedes 0.85 goals
Parma scores an average of 0.70 goals and concedes 1.27 goals per game this season
Away from home, Parma scores an average of 0.71 goals and concedes 1.21 goals
The Stadio Olimpico has seen an average of 3.2 goals per game in the last 5 matches
Both teams scored in 3 of 5 matches, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 3 of 5 matches
Head-to-Head
In 3 head-to-head matches, the record is even
Lazio won 1 match, Parma won 1 match, and there was 1 draw
Lazio scored 4 goals in these encounters, while Parma scored 5 times
Lazio won the last meeting 1-0 on December 13, 2025
Key Players
For Lazio, Kenneth Taylor stands out, scoring 2 goals in 5 games with a rising form trend
Daniel Maldini contributed 1 goal and 1 assist in his last 4 appearances
Gustav Isaksen scored once in the last 5 games and showed stable form
For Parma, Mateo Pellegrino is the top scorer with 8 season goals and 1 assist, scoring once in the last 5 games
AdriƔn BernabƩ impressed with 3 season goals and 1 assist, including 1 goal in his last 5 games
Gabriel Strefezza provided 1 assist in his last 5 appearances and shows stable form
Goalkeepers
Edoardo Motta is in goal for Lazio, showing rising form in 3 appearances with an average rating of 7.08 in his last 5 games
Lazio has kept 14 clean sheets this season
Parma's goal is defended by Zion Suzuki, who shows declining form in 4 appearances with an average rating of 6.64 in his last 5 games
Parma has kept 10 clean sheets this season
Influences
Lazio holds a home advantage with an average of 1.05 home goals scored and 0.85 home goals conceded
The Stadio Olimpico has seen an average of 3.2 goals per game in the last 5 matches
Both teams scored in 60% of matches at the stadium, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 60%