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Serie A

Napoli - AC Milan

04/06/2026, 06:45 PM

1 : 0
Expected Goals
Napoli
1.1
Total xG
2.5
AC Milan
1.4
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

1:2

9%

0:2

8%

2:1

7%

2:2

5%
What influences the xG?
NAPAM

Napoli

3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match)
+0.02
Rasmus Højlund on the bench (10 goals, 2 assists)
Matteo Politano  on the bench (1 goals, 5 assists)
Eljif Elmas on the bench (1 goals, 3 assists)
Antonio Vergara not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists)
Sam Beukema on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists)
Alisson Santos on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists)

AC Milan

Defensive strength (0.8 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)
-0.40
Attack strength (1.36x league average)
+0.37
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.13
Declining form (1.2 vs 1.6 season average)
-0.13
Christian Pulisic on the bench (8 goals, 3 assists)
Rafael Leão on the bench (9 goals, 2 assists)
Pervis Estupiñán on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
24% of goal output missing (only 83% available)
Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

28%

Draw

30%

Away Win

43%

Goals

Over 1.5

74%

Under 1.5

26%

Over 2.5

47%

Under 2.5

53%

Over 3.5

25%

Under 3.5

75%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

57%

Away or Draw

72%

No Draw

70%

Both Score

Yes

53%

No

47%

Key Factors
  • AC Milan is favored by mathematical analysis with a win probability of 43%
  • Napoli shows strong current form, while AC Milan's goal production recently dropped from 1.6 to 1.2 goals per game
  • AC Milan's active goal threat is slightly lower at 84% due to missing players, compared to Napoli's 88%
Risk Factors
  • Napoli has a more extensive list of absences with 5 injured players
  • AC Milan's offensive output has recently decreased, with an average of 1.2 goals per game compared to a season average of 1.6
  • The venue has a high BTTS rate of 5/5 in the last 5 home games, which could challenge AC Milan's strong away defense
Overview

Napoli (3rd place, 62 points) host AC Milan (2nd place, 63 points) at the Stadio Diego Armando Maradona

Serie A match on April 6, 2026, 8:45 PM

This is a top-of-the-table clash with important points at stake in the race for Champions League spots

Form

Napoli is in good form with LWWWW in their last five matches across all competitions

This translates to 4 wins and 1 loss

Their last victory was a 1-0 away win against Cagliari

AC Milan's form is LWWLW in their last five matches across all competitions

This corresponds to 3 wins and 2 losses

Their last result was a 3-2 home win against Torino

Statistics

Napoli scores an average of 1.53 goals per game and concedes 1.00 goals

At home, they average 1.56 goals scored and 0.81 goals conceded per home game

Napoli had BTTS (both teams to score) in 16 games and over 2.5 goals in 17 games

AC Milan scores an average of 1.57 goals and concedes only 0.77 goals per game

Away from home, their average is 1.56 goals scored and a strong 0.62 goals conceded per away game

AC Milan had BTTS in 15 games and over 2.5 goals in 13 games

Napoli consistently scores around 1.6 goals per game

AC Milan's goal production has recently stalled at 1.2 goals, compared to their season average of 1.6

Head-to-Head

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Napoli recorded 2 wins, AC Milan also 2 wins, and there was 1 draw

Napoli scored 7 goals, while AC Milan scored 6 goals

The last encounter on September 28, 2025, ended with a 2-1 away win for AC Milan

The recent head-to-head record is even

Key Players

For Napoli, Scott McTominay (7 goals, 3 assists), Kevin De Bruyne (4 goals, 0 assists), and Frank Anguissa (4 goals, 1 assist) are important midfielders

McTominay shows a slightly declining form trend with 1 goal in his last 5 games, but a high season rating of 7.14

De Bruyne also has a declining form trend with no goals in his last 5 games, but a season rating of 7.16

Anguissa also has a declining form trend with no goals in his last 5 games, with a season rating of 7.10

For AC Milan, Luka Modrić (2 goals, 3 assists), Adrien Rabiot (5 goals, 4 assists), and Christopher Nkunku (5 goals, 3 assists) are significant players

Modrić shows a declining form trend but has the highest season rating in the squad at 7.38

Rabiot has a stable form trend with 1 goal in his last 5 games and a season rating of 7.33

Nkunku has a stable form trend with 1 assist in his last 5 games

Goalkeepers

Napoli's goalkeeper, Vanja Milinković-Savić, has recorded 10 clean sheets this season and has an average rating of 6.76

AC Milan's goalkeeper, Mike Maignan, has achieved 13 clean sheets this season and has an average rating of 7.11

Influences

The Stadio Diego Armando Maradona has seen an average of 3.0 total goals per game in the last 5 matches

Both teams scored in 5 out of 5 games, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 4 out of 5 games

Napoli shows a strong offensive record at home with an average of 1.56 goals per game and only 0.81 goals conceded

AC Milan is defensively very stable away from home, conceding only 0.62 goals per game

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