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Serie A

Sassuolo - Cagliari

04/04/2026, 01:00 PM

2 : 1
Expected Goals
Sassuolo
1.3
Total xG
2.3
Cagliari
1.0
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

12%

1:0

11%

0:1

9%

2:1

8%
What influences the xG?
SASCAG

Sassuolo

Defensive weakness (1.4 conceded vs 1.3 league avg)
+0.09
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
+0.06
Attack weakness (0.76x league average)
-0.03
Tarik Muharemović on the bench (2 goals, 2 assists)

Cagliari

Defensive weakness (1.4 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)
+0.30
5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match)
-0.18
Attack weakness (0.73x league average)
-0.14
Declining form (0.8 vs 1.2 season average)
-0.13
Semih Kılıçsoy on the bench (4 goals, 0 assists)
Weak away record (0.9 vs 1.2 goals/match)
Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

40%

Draw

32%

Away Win

29%

Goals

Over 1.5

68%

Under 1.5

32%

Over 2.5

40%

Under 2.5

60%

Over 3.5

20%

Under 3.5

80%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

71%

Away or Draw

60%

No Draw

68%

Both Score

Yes

48%

No

52%

Key Factors
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a home win for Sassuolo with a 40% probability and 1.26 expected goals
  • Sassuolo's positive form trend (WWLLD, recent avg 1.4 goals) contrasts with Cagliari's negative trend (DDLLL, recent avg 0.8 goals)
  • Sassuolo has won 2 of the 3 direct duels, including the last encounter
Risk Factors
  • Sassuolo averaged 3.4 shots on target in their last 5 games
  • Cagliari averaged 2.8 shots on target in their last 5 games
  • The model calculates the probability for over 2.5 goals at only 40%
Overview

Sassuolo (10th place, 39 points) host Cagliari (15th place, 30 points) at the MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore. It's a Serie A match on April 4th, 2026, 02:00 PM. Sassuolo aims to solidify its position in the midfield, while Cagliari battles against relegation.

Form

Sassuolo's form across all competitions is WWLLD

This corresponds to 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses

The last match ended in a draw

Cagliari's form across all competitions is DDLLL

This means 0 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses

The last match ended in a loss

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Sassuolo has scored an average of 1.20 goals per game this season and conceded 1.33 goals

Cagliari has scored an average of 1.03 goals per game and conceded 1.40 goals

Sassuolo kept 6 clean sheets, Cagliari also kept 6 clean sheets

At the MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore, an average of 2.60 goals per game have been scored

Both teams scored in 1 of 5 matches at this stadium, and 3 of 5 matches ended with over 2.5 goals

Head-to-Head

In the 3 head-to-head matches between these teams, Sassuolo has 2 wins and Cagliari has 1 win

There have been no draws between the two sides

Sassuolo scored a total of 5 goals, while Cagliari scored 3 goals

The last encounter was won by Sassuolo with a 2:1 score on October 30th, 2025

Recent direct duels have been dominated by Sassuolo

Key Players

For Sassuolo, the key players are Domenico Berardi (7 goals, 4 assists), Armand Laurienté (5 goals, 7 assists), and Andrea Pinamonti (7 goals, 3 assists)

Domenico Berardi shows stable form with 2 goals and 1 assist in the last 5 games, with an average rating of 7.41

Armand Laurienté has rising form with 1 goal and 4 assists in the last 5 games, with an average rating of 7.29

Andrea Pinamonti shows declining form with 3 goals and 1 assist in the last 5 games, with an average rating of 6.55

For Cagliari, Sebastiano Esposito (4 goals, 5 assists), Michael Folorunsho (2 goals, 0 assists), and Gianluca Gaetano (2 goals, 3 assists) are important

Sebastiano Esposito shows stable form with 1 goal and 1 assist in the last 5 games, with an average rating of 7.16

Michael Folorunsho has stable form with 2 goals in the last 5 games, with an average rating of 6.67

Gianluca Gaetano shows stable form with 0 goals and 0 assists in the last 5 games, with an average rating of 7.00

Goalkeepers

Sassuolo's goalkeeper, Arijanet Murić, had an average rating of 7.20 in 29 appearances

Sassuolo's team has achieved a total of 6 clean sheets

Cagliari's goalkeeper, Elia Caprile, had an average rating of 6.95 in 30 appearances

Cagliari's team has achieved a total of 6 clean sheets

Influences

Sassuolo scored an average of 1.21 home goals and conceded 1.50 home goals

Cagliari scored an average of 1.00 away goals and conceded 1.60 away goals

The MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore is known for an average of 2.6 goals per game

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