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Serie A

Juventus - Genoa

04/06/2026, 04:00 PM

2 : 0
Expected Goals
Juventus
2.3
Total xG
3.2
Genoa
0.9
Most Likely Scores

2:0

11%

2:1

10%

1:1

9%

3:0

8%

3:1

8%
What influences the xG?
JUVGEN

Juventus

Attack strength (1.75x league average)
+1.39
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.4 goals/match)
+0.16
Rising form (2.4 vs 1.9 season average)
+0.16
Standings advantage (pos 5 vs 14, 9 places gap)
+0.10
Defensive strength (1.3 conceded vs 1.3 league avg)
-0.03
Full strength squad available

Genoa

Standings disadvantage (pos 14 vs 5, 9 places gap)
-0.09
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.4 goals/match)
-0.01
Caleb Ekuban not in squad (3 goals, 1 assists)
Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

68%

Draw

20%

Away Win

12%

Goals

Over 1.5

84%

Under 1.5

16%

Over 2.5

63%

Under 2.5

37%

Over 3.5

40%

Under 3.5

60%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

88%

Away or Draw

32%

No Draw

80%

Both Score

Yes

55%

No

45%

Key Factors
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a home win for Juventus with 68% probability and 2.34 expected goals
  • Juventus shows positive form development, currently scoring more frequently (2.4) than their season average (1.9)
  • The historical record clearly favors Juventus, who are unbeaten in the last 5 direct duels with 3 wins
Risk Factors
  • For Genoa, Caleb Ekuban (3G/1A) is not in the starting lineup
Overview

Juventus (5th place, 54 points) host Genoa (14th place, 33 points) at the Juventus Stadium. Serie A match on April 6, 2026, 6:00 PM. Juventus aims to stay connected to the top group and secure Champions League qualification.

Form

Juventus shows strong form in their last five matches with WDWWD (3 wins, 2 draws, 0 losses). Their last game ended in a draw. Genoa's form in their last five matches is WLWWL (3 wins, 0 draws, 2 losses). Their last game ended in a loss. W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss.

Statistics

Juventus averages 1.73 goals scored per game and concedes 0.97 goals. At home, the average is 1.76 goals scored and 0.76 goals conceded. Genoa averages 1.20 goals scored and concedes 1.40 goals per match. Away, the average is 1.21 goals scored and 1.50 goals conceded. Juventus recorded 11 clean sheets and Genoa 7 clean sheets this season.

Head-to-Head

In the last five head-to-head matches, Juventus dominated with 3 wins and 2 draws, while Genoa recorded no victories. Juventus scored a total of 6 goals in these encounters, Genoa only 1 goal. The last meeting was won by Juventus on August 31, 2025, with a score of 1:0.

Key Players

For Juventus, Kenan Yıldız is an important attacking player with 10 goals and 6 assists this season, his form is rising with a rating of 7.83 in the last 5 games. Jonathan David contributed 5 goals and 4 assists, also with rising form. Manuel Locatelli, with 1 goal and 2 assists, has a season average rating of 7.40 and shows rising form in the last five games (7.86). Genoa relies on Lorenzo Colombo, who scored 6 goals and 1 assist this season. Ruslan Malinovskyi contributed 5 goals and 3 assists. Vitinha scored 5 goals and 1 assist, contributing 2 goals in his last 4 games.

Goalkeepers

In goal for Juventus is Mattia Perin, who has an average rating of 6.62 in 7 season appearances. Juventus has kept 11 clean sheets this season. For Genoa, Justin Bijlow is the goalkeeper, with an average rating of 6.83 in 9 season appearances. Genoa achieved 7 clean sheets this season.

Influences

The Juventus Stadium saw an average of 2.6 total goals per game in the last 5 matches. Both teams scored in 2 of 5 matches, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 2 of 5 matches. Juventus showed good performance at home with an average of 1.76 goals scored and 0.76 goals conceded.

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