Serie A
Cremonese - Bologna
04/05/2026, 01:00 PM
Expected Goals
0.9
2.4
1.5
1:1
14%0:1
11%0:0
10%0:2
10%1:2
9%What influences the xG?
Cremonese
Bologna
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
22%
Draw
29%
Away Win
49%
Goals
Over 1.5
72%
Under 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
44%
Under 2.5
56%
Over 3.5
23%
Under 3.5
77%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
51%
Away or Draw
78%
No Draw
71%
Both Score
Yes
49%
No
51%
Key Factors
- Bologna is the clear favorite with a 49% win probability according to mathematical analysis
- Bologna's solid away defense (0.95 goals conceded per game) meets Cremonese's weak home attack (0.86 goals scored per game)
- Cremonese is in a form crisis with 4 losses in their last 5 games
Risk Factors
- Cremonese averaged 3.0 shots on target in their last 5 matches
Overview
Cremonese (17th place, 27 points) host Bologna (9th place, 42 points) at the Stadio Giovanni Zini. The Serie A match takes place on April 5, 2026, 3:00 PM. Cremonese is fighting for survival, while Bologna holds a mid-table position. The mathematical analysis places Bologna as favorites with a 49% win probability, a draw is calculated at 29%, and a home win at 22%.
Form
Cremonese's form across all competitions is LLLLW. The team recorded 1 win and 4 losses in their last five matches, with the recent win ending a losing streak. Bologna shows a form of LDWWL, with 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses in their last five games. This suggests a mixed but more stable performance compared to Cremonese.
Statistics
Cremonese averages 0.83 goals scored and 1.47 goals conceded per game this season. At home, these values are 0.86 goals scored and 1.5 goals conceded. Bologna shows a better seasonal record with an average of 1.27 goals scored and 1.2 goals conceded. Away from home, Bologna scores 1.26 goals and concedes only 0.95 goals per game. Cremonese has achieved 8 clean sheets this season, Bologna 9. Over 2.5 goals were scored in 12 Cremonese matches and 14 Bologna matches. At the Stadio Giovanni Zini, the last 5 matches averaged 1.8 goals per game, with both teams scoring in 20% of matches and over 2.5 goals in 20% of matches.
Head-to-Head
There has only been one direct encounter between these two teams to date. This took place on December 1, 2025, where Bologna, as the home team, won 3-1 against Cremonese. Bologna was the dominant side in this sole encounter.
Key Players
For Cremonese, Federico Bonazzoli (6 goals, 2 assists), Jari Vandeputte (1 goal, 4 assists) with rising form, and Filippo Terracciano (2 goals) are important players. For Bologna, Santiago Castro (7 goals, 2 assists) along with Federico Bernardeschi (2 goals, 1 assist) and Jonathan Rowe (1 goal, 1 assist), both with rising form, are key players. Not nominated: Riccardo Orsolini (7 Goals/1 Assist), Nadir Zortea (0 Goals/2 Assists).
Goalkeepers
Emil Audero is the goalkeeper for Cremonese; his team has achieved 8 clean sheets this season. For Bologna, Federico Ravaglia is in goal, and his team has recorded 9 clean sheets this season.
Influences
The Stadio Giovanni Zini has a history of averaging 1.8 goals per game in the last 5 matches. Both teams scored in only 20% of matches, and more than 2.5 goals were scored in only 20% of matches, indicating generally low-scoring encounters. Cremonese scores an average of 0.86 goals at home and concedes 1.5 goals, while Bologna scores 1.26 goals away and concedes only 0.95 goals.