Serie A
Cagliari - Cremonese
04/11/2026, 01:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.1
1.9
0.8
0:0
17%1:1
15%1:0
14%0:1
11%2:0
9%What influences the xG?
Cagliari
Cremonese
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
39%
Draw
35%
Away Win
26%
Goals
Over 1.5
59%
Under 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
30%
Under 2.5
70%
Over 3.5
13%
Under 3.5
87%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
74%
Away or Draw
61%
No Draw
65%
Both Score
Yes
39%
No
61%
Key Factors
- The mathematical analysis predicts a slight home advantage for Cagliari with a home win probability of 39%
- Both teams are in poor form, Cagliari with 0 wins and 1 draw in 5 games, Cremonese with 1 win and 4 losses
- Cagliari's goal production is stagnant, averaging 0.8 goals per game recently, compared to a season average of 1.2 goals
Risk Factors
- Cagliari averaged 3.0 shots on target in their last 5 games, indicating low offensive efficiency
- Cremonese's away defense shows weaknesses, conceding an average of 1.53 goals per away game
- The low probability for over 2.5 goals (30%) and BTTS (39%) suggests a potentially low-scoring match
Overview
Cagliari (16th place, 30 points) host Cremonese (17th place, 27 points) at the Sardegna Arena
Serie A match on April 11, 2026, 3:00 PM
Both teams are fighting for crucial points in the lower third of the table to avoid relegation
Form
Cagliari's form across all competitions is DLLLL
This translates to 0 wins, 1 draw, and 4 losses in the last 5 games
Cagliari lost their last match 1-2 against Sassuolo
Cremonese shows a form of LLLWL
This means 1 win, 0 draws, and 4 losses in their last 5 games
Cremonese recently lost 1-2 to Bologna
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Statistics
Cagliari averages 1.03 goals scored per game and concedes 1.42 goals
In home games, Cagliari averages 1.00 goals scored and 1.12 goals conceded
The team kept 6 clean sheets and both teams scored in 16 matches
Cremonese averages 0.84 goals scored per game and concedes 1.48 goals
Away from home, Cremonese averages 0.87 goals scored and 1.53 goals conceded
The team kept 8 clean sheets and both teams scored in 14 matches
At the Sardegna Arena, an average of 2.0 goals per game were scored in the last 5 matches
Both teams scored in 1 out of 5 games, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 2 out of 5 games
Head-to-Head
In 2 head-to-head matches, Cagliari secured 1 win
Cremonese has not yet won against Cagliari, with 1 draw recorded
Cagliari scored a total of 3 goals, Cremonese 2 goals
The last encounter on January 8, 2026, ended in a 2-2 draw
Historically, Cagliari shows a slight dominance in these matchups
Key Players
For Cagliari, Sebastiano Esposito (5 goals, 5 assists, Avg. 7.15) and Gianluca Gaetano (2 goals, 3 assists, Avg. 6.83) are important players
Sebastiano Esposito scored 2 goals and 1 assist in his last 5 games with an Avg. of 7.25
Gianluca Gaetano showed an Avg. rating of 6.98 in 4 out of 5 games
Not in squad: Michel Adopo (1 Goal, 1 Assist)
For Cremonese, Federico Bonazzoli (7 goals, 2 assists, Avg. 6.99) and Jari Vandeputte (1 goal, 4 assists, Avg. 6.9) are crucial
Federico Bonazzoli scored 2 goals in his last 5 games with an Avg. of 7.18
Jari Vandeputte scored 1 goal and achieved an Avg. of 7.11 in his last 5 appearances
Not in squad: Alessio Zerbin (0 Goals, 2 Assists), Matteo Bianchetti (0 Goals, 2 Assists)
Goalkeepers
Elia Caprile is Cagliari's goalkeeper and played 31 season appearances
Cagliari achieved 6 clean sheets this season
His rating in the last 5 games is an Avg. of 6.51 and shows a slightly declining trend
Emil Audero is Cremonese's goalkeeper and started in 27 season appearances
Cremonese recorded 8 clean sheets
His rating in the last 4 games is an Avg. of 6.55 and shows a slightly declining trend
Influences
The Sardegna Arena has seen an average of 2.0 goals per game in the last 5 matches
Both teams scored in only 20% of the matches, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 40%
Cagliari averages 1.00 goals scored at home and concedes 1.12 goals
Cremonese averages 0.87 goals scored away and concedes 1.53 goals