🇮🇹

Serie A

Como - Inter

04/12/2026, 06:45 PM

3 : 4
Expected Goals
Como
1.2
Total xG
2.3
Inter
1.0
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

12%

1:0

11%

0:1

9%

2:1

8%
What influences the xG?
COMINT

Como

Defensive strength (0.8 conceded vs 1.3 league avg)
-0.47
Rising form (3 vs 2.1 season average)
+0.27
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
Attack strength (1.35x league average)
-0.12
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match)
-0.09
Lucas Da Cunha  on the bench (3 goals, 4 assists)
Maxence Caqueret on the bench (2 goals, 4 assists)
Jacobo Ramón on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists)

Inter

Attack strength (1.27x league average)
-0.25
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
-0.24
Defensive strength (0.9 conceded vs 1.1 league avg)
-0.21
Declining form (1.8 vs 2.2 season average)
-0.14
Yann Bisseck not in squad (2 goals, 2 assists)
Carlos Augusto on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
Weak away record (1.7 vs 2.2 goals/match)
Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

39%

Draw

32%

Away Win

29%

Goals

Over 1.5

68%

Under 1.5

32%

Over 2.5

40%

Under 2.5

60%

Over 3.5

20%

Under 3.5

80%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

71%

Away or Draw

61%

No Draw

68%

Both Score

Yes

48%

No

52%

Key Factors
  • Como's strong home form (DWWWD) and defensive strength at home (Avg. 0.61 goals conceded per game).
  • Inter's historical dominance in head-to-head matches (3 wins, 1 draw, 8:0 goal difference).
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a 71% chance for a home win or a draw.
Risk Factors
  • Limited data available for weather conditions
Overview

Como (5th place, 58 points) host Inter (1st place, 72 points) at the Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia. Serie A match on April 12, 2026, 7:45 PM. Como is fighting for a European spot, while Inter defends their league lead.

Form

Como's form across all competitions is DWWWD (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss). They are unbeaten in their last 1 match (3 wins, 2 draws, 0 losses). Inter's recent form is DLDDW. Inter is unbeaten in their last 1 match (1 win, 3 draws, 1 loss).

Statistics

Como averages 1.71 goals scored per game and concedes 0.71 goals. At home, they score 1.72 goals and concede 0.61 goals. Inter averages 2.29 goals per match and concedes 0.84 goals. Away, they score 2.25 goals and concede 0.92 goals. At Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia, the last 5 matches averaged 3.0 goals per game. Both teams scored in 3 of 5 matches. Over 2.5 goals occurred in 4 of 5 matches.

Head-to-Head

In 4 head-to-head matches, Inter secured 3 wins and there was 1 draw. Como has not won any matches so far. The goal difference is 0:8 in favor of Inter. The last encounter on March 3, 2026, ended in a 0:0 draw.

Key Players

Nico Paz (Midfielder) has 10 goals and 6 assists this season. In the last 5 games, he scored 2 goals and provided 0 assists with an average rating of 7.50. Anastasios Douvikas (Attacker) has 11 goals and 1 assist this season. In the last 5 games, he scored 2 goals and provided 0 assists with an average rating of 6.84. Martin Baturina (Midfielder) contributed 6 goals and 3 assists this season. In the last 5 games, he scored 1 goal and provided 0 assists with an average rating of 7.02. Marcus Thuram (Attacker) recorded 8 goals and 5 assists this season. In the last 5 games, he scored 2 goals and provided 3 assists with an average rating of 7.36. Hakan Çalhanoğlu (Midfielder) scored 9 goals and 3 assists this season. In the last 5 games, he scored 2 goals and provided 1 assist with an average rating of 7.48. Nicolò Barella (Midfielder) contributed 2 goals and 7 assists this season. In the last 5 games, he scored 1 goal and provided 2 assists with an average rating of 7.40.

Goalkeepers

Como's goalkeeper Jean Butez achieved 15 clean sheets this season. Inter's goalkeeper Yann Sommer also recorded 15 clean sheets.

Influences

Como has scored an average of 1.72 goals and conceded 0.61 goals at home, indicating a home advantage. At Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia, the average is 3.0 goals per game, with both teams scoring in 60% of matches and over 2.5 goals in 80% of games. The match will be played on grass.

Ready to Get Started?

Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.