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Serie A

Torino - Hellas Verona

04/11/2026, 01:00 PM

2 : 1
Expected Goals
Torino
1.4
Total xG
2.5
Hellas Verona
1.1
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

2:1

9%

2:0

8%

1:2

7%

0:2

5%
What influences the xG?
TORHV

Torino

3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match)
+0.22
Rising form (2 vs 1.3 season average)
+0.22
Standings advantage (pos 12 vs 19, 7 places gap)
+0.05
Duván Zapata not in squad (3 goals, 1 assists)

Hellas Verona

Standings disadvantage (pos 19 vs 12, 7 places gap)
-0.09
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match)
-0.07
Declining form (0.6 vs 0.8 season average)
-0.07
Gift Orban on the bench (7 goals, 2 assists)
25% of goal output missing (only 77% available)
Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

40%

Draw

30%

Away Win

30%

Goals

Over 1.5

73%

Under 1.5

27%

Over 2.5

46%

Under 2.5

54%

Over 3.5

24%

Under 3.5

76%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

70%

Away or Draw

60%

No Draw

70%

Both Score

Yes

52%

No

48%

Key Factors
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a home win probability of 40% for Torino
  • Torino's form is positive with 3 wins from the last 5 games and a currently higher goal rate (2.0) than the season average (1.3)
  • Hellas Verona shows negative form with 4 losses from 5 games, low goal production (0.6), and an average of 2.07 goals conceded per away game
  • Torino dominated head-to-head matches with 3 wins and 2 draws in 5 encounters
Risk Factors
  • The low average of 2.6 goals per game and the low Over 2.5 rate (40%) at the Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino suggest a potentially low-scoring match
  • Limited data for duel statistics in the last 5 games
  • Hellas Verona has recently averaged only 3.8 shots on target
Overview

Torino (12th place, 36 points) host Hellas Verona (19th place, 18 points) at the Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino

Serie A match on April 11, 2026, 3:00 PM

Torino aims to consolidate its mid-table position, while Hellas Verona battles against relegation

Form

Torino's form in the last five games is WLWLW

The team recorded 3 wins and 2 losses

The last encounter ended in a win for Torino

Hellas Verona shows a form of LWLLL in their last five matches

They achieved 1 win and 4 losses

The team recently suffered 3 consecutive losses

Statistics

Torino averaged 1.13 goals scored per game and conceded 1.71 goals per game this season

In home games, the average is 1.12 goals scored and 1.35 goals conceded

Hellas Verona averaged 0.71 goals scored per game and conceded 1.71 goals per game

Away from home, their goal average is 0.71 scored and 2.07 conceded

The Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino averages 2.6 goals per game

Both teams scored in 2 out of 5 games, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 2 out of 5 games

Head-to-Head

In the 5 head-to-head matches between Torino and Hellas Verona, Torino dominated

Torino won 3 games, while Hellas Verona won none, and there were 2 draws

Torino scored a total of 9 goals compared to 4 by Hellas Verona

The last meeting on January 4, 2026, ended in a 3-0 victory for Torino

Key Players

Giovanni Simeone is an important offensive player for Torino with 8 season goals

He shows a rising form with 3 goals in the last 5 games

Nikola Vlašić scored 7 season goals and 3 assists

His form is rising with 1 goal in the last 5 games

Ché Adams contributed 5 season goals and 2 assists

Martin Frese is notable for Hellas Verona with 1 goal in the last 5 games

Jean-Daniel Akpa Akpro showed 1 goal in the last 5 games

Kieron Bowie also scored 1 goal in the last 5 games

Duván Zapata (3T/1A) is not in the lineup for Torino

Gift Orban (7T/2A) is not in the lineup for Hellas Verona

Goalkeepers

Torino goalkeeper Alberto Paleari kept 11 clean sheets this season

Lorenzo Montipò of Hellas Verona recorded 5 clean sheets

Influences

Torino averages 1.12 goals scored and 1.35 goals conceded in home games

Hellas Verona concedes an average of 2.07 goals per away game

The Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino records an average of 2.6 goals per game

Both teams scored in 40% of the last 5 games at the stadium

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