Serie A
Atalanta - Juventus
04/11/2026, 06:45 PM
Expected Goals
1.9
3.5
1.5
1:1
10%2:1
9%1:2
7%2:2
7%2:0
6%What influences the xG?
Atalanta
Juventus
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
46%
Draw
24%
Away Win
29%
Goals
Over 1.5
87%
Under 1.5
13%
Over 2.5
67%
Under 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
46%
Under 3.5
54%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
71%
Away or Draw
54%
No Draw
76%
Both Score
Yes
68%
No
32%
Key Factors
- The mathematical analysis predicts a higher probability of an Atalanta home win at 47%
- Juventus (59% possession, Avg. 6.6 shots on target) plays possession-dominant, while Atalanta (44% possession, Avg. 4.6 shots on target) focuses on counters
- Atalanta dominated recent head-to-head matches with a 9:3 goal difference and a 3:0 victory in the last encounter
Risk Factors
- Atalanta's recent goal production is below their season average, with Ø 1.4 goals per game compared to Ø 1.6 goals
- Juventus' away defense concedes more goals on average, with 1.23 goals per game compared to their season average of 0.94 goals conceded
Overview
Atalanta (7th place, 53 points) host Juventus (5th place, 57 points) at the Gewiss Stadium
This Serie A match takes place on April 11, 2026, 8:45 PM
Both teams are fighting for European spots, with Juventus currently two places and four points ahead of the hosts
Form
Team form shows Juventus in better shape
Atalanta recorded two wins, one draw, and two losses in their last five matches across all competitions (Form: LDLWW)
Currently, Atalanta has secured two consecutive wins
Juventus is unbeaten in their last five games with three wins and two draws (Form: DWWDW) and achieved a win in their last outing
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Statistics
Atalanta scores an average of 1.42 goals per game and concedes 0.87 goals
At home, they are defensively strong, conceding an average of 0.72 goals per home game
Juventus scores an average of 1.74 goals per game and concedes 0.94 goals
Away from home, they score 1.69 goals per game but concede 1.23 goals
The home venue, Gewiss Stadium, shows a high goal rate, with an average of 4.0 goals per game in the last 5 matches
In 4 out of 5 games, both teams scored and there were over 2.5 goals
Head-to-Head
In five head-to-head matches, Atalanta has secured two wins, Juventus one win, and there have been two draws
The goal difference of 9:3 clearly favors Atalanta
Atalanta won the last direct encounter on February 5, 2026, with a 3:0 score
Atalanta has shown dominance in recent meetings
Key Players
For Atalanta, key players include Nikola Krstović (9 season goals, 4 assists), Charles De Ketelaere (3 season goals, 5 assists), and Giorgio Scalvini (3 season goals, 0 assists)
Nikola Krstović scored 2 goals in the last 5 games with declining form
Charles De Ketelaere showed 1 goal and 2 assists in the last 5 games with rising form
For Juventus, Kenan Yıldız (10 season goals, 6 assists), Manuel Locatelli (1 season goal, 2 assists), and Jérémie Boga (3 season goals, 1 assist) are important
Kenan Yıldız scored 2 goals and 2 assists in the last 5 games with rising form
Manuel Locatelli contributed 1 goal and 1 assist, also with rising form
Jérémie Boga scored 3 goals in the last 5 games with rising form
Goalkeepers
Marco Carnesecchi is Atalanta's goalkeeper
Juventus starts with Michele Di Gregorio
Both teams have recorded 12 clean sheets this season
Marco Carnesecchi appeared in 31 season games, while Michele Di Gregorio played in 24
Influences
The Gewiss Stadium is known as a high-scoring venue
The last 5 games there saw an average of 4.0 goals per match
In 80% of the games, both teams scored and there were over 2.5 goals
Atalanta shows solid home strength with an average of 1.39 goals scored and only 0.72 goals conceded per home game
Juventus scores an average of 1.69 goals away from home but concedes 1.23 goals