Serie A
Bologna - Lecce
04/12/2026, 04:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.6
2.4
0.7
1:0
14%1:1
13%2:0
12%0:0
11%2:1
9%What influences the xG?
Bologna
Lecce
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
57%
Draw
27%
Away Win
15%
Goals
Over 1.5
70%
Under 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
43%
Under 2.5
57%
Over 3.5
22%
Under 3.5
78%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
85%
Away or Draw
43%
No Draw
73%
Both Score
Yes
44%
No
56%
Key Factors
- The mathematical analysis predicts a home win for Bologna with a probability of 57%
- Bologna is in significantly better form and league position than Lecce, which has suffered three consecutive losses
- Lecce averaged only 2.0 shots on target in their last 5 games and scores an average of 0.68 goals per game across the season
Risk Factors
- Bologna had only 3 days of rest since their last match
- Lecce averaged 2.0 shots on target in their last 5 games, indicating few attempts on goal
- Bologna concedes an average of 1.64 goals per home game
Overview
Bologna (8th place, 45 points) host Lecce (18th place, 27 points) at the Stadio Renato Dall'Ara
Serie A match on April 12, 2026, 6:00 PM
Bologna aims for European spots, while Lecce is in the relegation zone
Form
Bologna's form across all competitions is WWLWL (3 wins, 0 draws, 2 losses)
Their last match resulted in a loss
Lecce shows a form of LWLLL (1 win, 0 draws, 4 losses)
They have suffered three consecutive losses
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Statistics
Bologna scores an average of 1.29 goals per game and concedes an average of 1.19 goals per game
They kept 9 clean sheets and both teams scored in 15 matches
Lecce scores an average of 0.68 goals per game and concedes an average of 1.39 goals per game
They kept 8 clean sheets and both teams scored in 11 matches
At home, Bologna scores an average of 1.27 goals and concedes an average of 1.64 goals
Away, Lecce scores an average of 0.67 goals and concedes an average of 1.4 goals
The Stadio Renato Dall'Ara sees an average of 2.4 total goals per game
Both teams scored in 3 of 5 matches, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 2 of 5 matches
Head-to-Head
In 5 head-to-head matches between Bologna and Lecce, Bologna recorded 2 wins and there were 3 draws
Lecce has not won any of the direct encounters
Bologna scored a total of 8 goals, while Lecce scored 3 goals
The last encounter on September 28, 2025, ended in a 2-2 draw
Recent head-to-head matches show a dominance for the home team Bologna
Key Players
For Bologna, Santiago Castro (7 goals, 2 assists in 28 appearances, 1 goal, 1 assist in last 5 games) is a key player
Also Riccardo Orsolini (7 goals, 1 assist in 29 appearances)
Juan Miranda (1 goal, 2 assists in 25 appearances, 2 assists in last 5 games) shows a rising form
Not in the starting lineup are Federico Bernardeschi (2 goals, 1 assist) and Jonathan Rowe (2 goals, 1 assist)
For Lecce, Lassana Coulibaly (3 goals, 1 assist in 26 appearances, 1 goal in last 5 games) is important
Nikola Stulic (3 goals in 29 appearances, 1 goal in last 5 games) is also noteworthy
As well as Lameck Banda (3 goals, 3 assists in 25 appearances, 1 assist in last 5 games)
Antonino Gallo (3 assists) is not in the starting lineup
Goalkeepers
Bologna's goalkeeper Massimo Pessina featured in one season match
Bologna managed to keep 9 clean sheets this season
Lecce relies on goalkeeper Wladimiro Falcone, who played in 31 season matches
Lecce kept 8 clean sheets this season
Influences
The Stadio Renato Dall'Ara sees an average of 2.4 total goals per game
Both teams scored in 3 of 5 matches, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 2 of 5 matches
Bologna scores an average of 1.27 goals per home game
They concede an average of 1.64 goals per home game