Serie A
AC Milan - Udinese
04/11/2026, 04:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.7
2.6
0.9
1:1
13%2:0
11%2:1
10%3:0
6%3:1
5%What influences the xG?
AC Milan
Udinese
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
54%
Draw
27%
Away Win
18%
Goals
Over 1.5
74%
Under 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
47%
Under 2.5
53%
Over 3.5
26%
Under 3.5
74%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
82%
Away or Draw
46%
No Draw
73%
Both Score
Yes
50%
No
50%
Key Factors
- Mathematical analysis indicates AC Milan has a 54% probability of winning
- AC Milan's home strength with an average of 1.47 goals scored and 0.87 goals conceded
- AC Milan's dominance in head-to-head matches with four wins in five encounters
Risk Factors
- AC Milan's goal production is stagnant (1.2) and their recent form trend is negative
- Udinese shows a positive recent form trend with currently more frequent scoring (1.8)
- The recent history of the Stadio Giuseppe Meazza shows a high average of 3.4 goals per game
Overview
AC Milan (3rd place, 63 points) host Udinese (11th place, 40 points) at the Stadio Giuseppe Meazza
Serie A match on April 11, 2026, 6:00 PM
Milan aims to solidify their position in the top group and close the gap to the leaders
Form
AC Milan's form (W/W/L/W/L) across all competitions shows three wins and two losses in their last five matches
Their last result was a 0-1 away loss against Napoli
Udinese (W/D/L/W/D), on the other hand, recorded two wins, two draws, and one loss in their last five matches
Their last result was a 0-0 home draw against Como
AC Milan's goal production is stagnant (1.2), with a season average of 1.6
Udinese is currently scoring more frequently (1.8) than their season average (1.2)
Statistics
AC Milan scored an average of 1.52 goals per game this season and conceded 0.77 goals
Udinese scored an average of 1.13 times and conceded 1.35 goals per game
At home, AC Milan averages 1.47 goals scored and 0.87 goals conceded
Udinese averages 1.12 goals scored and 1.35 goals conceded away from home
AC Milan kept 13 clean sheets this season, Udinese 8 clean sheets
At the Stadio Giuseppe Meazza, an average of 3.4 goals per game were scored in the last five matches
Both teams scored in 3 of 5 games, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 2 of 5 games
Head-to-Head
In the five previous head-to-head matches between AC Milan and Udinese, AC Milan won four games, while Udinese secured one victory
AC Milan scored 11 goals and conceded 3 goals during these encounters
The last meeting on September 20, 2025, ended in a 3-0 away win for AC Milan
Key Players
For AC Milan, Rafael LeĆ£o (9 goals, 2 assists, avg 7.04 rating) and Christian Pulisic (8 goals, 3 assists, avg 7.15 rating) are important attacking players
Adrien Rabiot in midfield has 5 goals and 4 assists with an average rating of 7.29
For Udinese, Keinan Davis (10 goals, 3 assists, avg 7.10 rating) and NicolĆ² Zaniolo (5 goals, 5 assists, avg 6.93 rating) stand out
Defender Christian Kabasele contributed 3 goals and shows a rising form trend
Goalkeepers
AC Milan goalkeeper Mike Maignan had 13 clean sheets in 30 season appearances and an average rating of 7.1
Udinese goalkeeper Maduka Okoye played in 23 matches, recording 8 clean sheets with an average rating of 6.78
Influences
AC Milan shows a solid home performance with an average of 1.47 goals scored and 0.87 goals conceded
The Stadio Giuseppe Meazza is known for high-scoring games, averaging 3.4 goals per match in the last 5 games
The stadium surface is grass