Serie A
Roma - Pisa
04/10/2026, 06:45 PM
Expected Goals
2.0
2.6
0.6
2:0
15%3:0
10%1:1
10%2:1
9%3:1
6%What influences the xG?
Roma
Pisa
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
71%
Draw
21%
Away Win
8%
Goals
Over 1.5
75%
Under 1.5
25%
Over 2.5
49%
Under 2.5
51%
Over 3.5
27%
Under 3.5
73%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
92%
Away or Draw
29%
No Draw
79%
Both Score
Yes
39%
No
61%
Key Factors
- Pipeline analysis: Roma has a high home win probability of 71% with 2.03 predicted goals
- Offensive/Defensive disparity: Roma's solid home defense (Avg. 0.53 goals conceded) meets Pisa's weak away offense (Avg. 0.73 goals scored) and vulnerable away defense (Avg. 1.64 goals conceded)
- Form trend (Advanced Stats): Roma's current goal production (1.6 goals) is higher than the season average (1.5 goals), while Pisa's production is declining (0.6 vs 0.8 goals)
Risk Factors
- Both teams recently show relatively few shots on target (Roma Avg. 3.0, Pisa Avg. 2.4), suggesting fewer clear-cut chances
- Roma has several key players unavailable due to injury, which could impact squad depth and performance
- Despite positive trends in advanced stats, Roma's home form (D-L-L-W-L) in recent matches shows mixed results
Overview
Roma (6th place, 54 points) host Pisa (20th place, 18 points) at the Stadio Olimpico
Serie A match on April 10, 2026, 8:45 PM
The Giallorossi are fighting for European spots, while Pisa are in a relegation battle
Form
Roma's form in the last five matches is D-L-L-W-L (1 win, 1 draw, 3 losses)
Pisa's form in the last five matches is L-L-W-L-L (1 win, 0 draws, 4 losses)
For Roma, the analysis describes a positive form trend, as they are currently scoring more often (1.6 goals) than their season average (1.5 goals)
Pisa, however, shows a negative form trend with faltering goal production (0.6 goals currently compared to 0.8 goals season average)
Statistics
Roma averages 1.35 goals scored per game and concedes 0.90 goals per match
At home, the Giallorossi are strong with an average of 1.35 goals scored and only 0.53 goals conceded per home game
Pisa averages 0.74 goals scored per game and concedes 1.77 goals per match
Away from home, Pisa averages 0.73 goals scored and concedes 1.64 goals per away game
At the Stadio Olimpico, an average of 2.8 total goals have been scored in recent matches
Both teams scored in 3 of 5 games, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 2 of 5 games
Head-to-Head
There has only been 1 head-to-head match between these teams
Roma won this game at home with a score of 1:0 on August 30, 2025
Historically, the home team has dominated this fixture
Key Players
Lorenzo Pellegrini shows a rising form with 3 goals and 1 assist in the last 5 matches
Donyell Malen has scored 7 season goals in 11 appearances and has played in 5/5 games
MatĂas SoulĂ© has contributed 6 goals and 4 assists this season
For Pisa, Stefano Moreo has scored 6 season goals
Antonio Caracciolo scored 2 goals in the last 5 matches
Mehdi LĂ©ris contributed 1 goal and 3 assists this season
Goalkeepers
Roma's goalkeeper, Mile Svilar, played 31 season games and kept 13 clean sheets
Adrian Semper, Pisa's goalkeeper, played in 18 games and achieved 1 clean sheet
Influences
Roma shows solid home strength with an average of 1.35 goals scored and only 0.53 goals conceded in home games
Pisa, on the other hand, struggles away from home, scoring only 0.73 goals on average while conceding 1.64 goals
At the Stadio Olimpico, an average of 2.8 goals per game have been scored in the last 5 matches