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Serie A

Fiorentina - Lazio

04/13/2026, 06:45 PM

1 : 0
Expected Goals
Fiorentina
1.8
Total xG
2.9
Lazio
1.1
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

2:1

10%

2:0

9%

1:2

6%

3:1

6%
What influences the xG?
FIOLAZ

Fiorentina

Attack strength (1.33x league average)
+0.89
Defensive strength (1.5 conceded vs 1.3 league avg)
+0.20
Standings disadvantage (pos 16 vs 9, 7 places gap)
-0.13
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match)
+0.05
Albert Gudmundsson not in squad (5 goals, 4 assists)
Moise Kean on the bench (8 goals, 1 assists)
Nicolò Fagioli not in squad (2 goals, 3 assists)
Fabiano Parisi not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists)
23% of goal output missing (only 73% available)
Strong home record (1.7 vs 1.4 goals/match)

Lazio

Attack strength (1.21x league average)
-0.11
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match)
+0.11
Rising form (1.6 vs 1.2 season average)
+0.11
Defensive weakness (1.1 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)
-0.05
Standings advantage (pos 9 vs 16, 7 places gap)
+0.04
Danilo Cataldi on the bench (3 goals, 3 assists)
Gustav Isaksen on the bench (4 goals, 1 assists)
Adam Marusic not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists)
Daniel Maldini not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists)
20% of goal output missing (only 76% available)
Weak away record (0.9 vs 1.2 goals/match)
Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

51%

Draw

26%

Away Win

22%

Goals

Over 1.5

80%

Under 1.5

21%

Over 2.5

55%

Under 2.5

45%

Over 3.5

32%

Under 3.5

68%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

78%

Away or Draw

49%

No Draw

74%

Both Score

Yes

57%

No

43%

Key Factors
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a home win for Fiorentina with a 51% probability
  • Lazio is unbeaten in their last 5 games with 3 wins and 2 draws
  • Fiorentina dominates recent head-to-head matches with 3 wins against 1 loss in 5 encounters
Risk Factors
  • The mathematical analysis indicates a high probability of a draw at 26%
  • The model predicts a high 57% probability for both teams to score
  • Limited data availability for total duels statistics in the last 5 matches
Overview

Fiorentina (16th place, 32 points) host Lazio (9th place, 44 points) at the Stadio Artemio Franchi for a Serie A match on April 13, 2026, 8:45 PM

Fiorentina is in the lower half of the table, while Lazio holds an upper table position

The home team aims to improve its league standing, while the visitors seek to consolidate their position in the upper mid-table

Form

Fiorentina's form in the last 5 games is WWDWL (3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss)

The last result was a 0-3 loss against Crystal Palace

Lazio shows a form of DWWWD (3 wins, 2 draws, 0 losses) in their last 5 matches

The last game ended in a 1-1 draw against Parma

Lazio is unbeaten in 5 games and demonstrates a stronger recent form

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Fiorentina scores an average of 1.16 goals per game and concedes 1.42 goals

At home, Fiorentina averages 1.19 goals scored and 1.25 goals conceded

Lazio scores an average of 1.03 goals per game and concedes 0.94 goals

Away from home, Lazio averages 1 goal scored and 1.1 goals conceded

The Stadio Artemio Franchi has seen an average of 2.4 total goals per game in the last 5 matches

Both teams scored in 3 out of 5 games, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 2 out of 5 games

Head-to-Head

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Fiorentina recorded 3 wins, Lazio 1 win, and there was 1 draw

Fiorentina scored 8 goals, while Lazio scored 6 goals

The last encounter on January 7, 2026, ended in a 2-2 draw

The home team (Fiorentina) has dominated recent direct confrontations

Key Players

For Fiorentina, Roberto Piccoli (attacker) shows rising form in the last 5 games with 2 goals and 1 assist

Rolando Mandragora (midfielder) recorded 2 assists in the last 5 games

Cher Ndour (midfielder) scored 2 goals and provided 1 assist in the last 5 games

Not nominated for Fiorentina: Albert Gudmundsson (5G/4A), Moise Kean (8G/1A), Nicolò Fagioli (2G/3A), Fabiano Parisi (1G/1A)

For Lazio, Kenneth Taylor (midfielder) is in rising form with 2 goals and 1 assist in the last 5 games

Mattia Zaccagni (attacker) and Boulaye Dia (attacker) showed stable performances in the last 5 games

Not nominated for Lazio: Danilo Cataldi (3G/3A), Gustav Isaksen (4G/1A), Adam Marusic (1G/2A), Daniel Maldini (1G/1A)

Goalkeepers

Fiorentina's goalkeeper, David de Gea, has played in 31 appearances

Fiorentina's team achieved 6 clean sheets this season

Lazio's goalkeeper, Edoardo Motta, has made 4 appearances

Lazio's team has recorded 14 clean sheets this season

Influences

Fiorentina scored an average of 1.19 goals at home and conceded 1.25 goals

Lazio scored an average of 1 goal away and conceded 1.1 goals

The Stadio Artemio Franchi recorded an average of 2.4 goals per game in the last 5 matches

Both teams scored in 60% of cases, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 40%

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