Serie A
Lecce - Fiorentina
04/20/2026, 06:45 PM
Expected Goals
1.0
2.2
1.3
1:1
15%0:0
13%0:1
12%1:0
9%0:2
9%What influences the xG?
Lecce
Fiorentina
The Lab
- 1Fiorentina: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (3 of 8 total)
- 2Lecce: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes
- 3Fiorentina: 4 wins in 5 games with xG above 1.0 (80% win rate)
- 4Fiorentina with Jacopo Fazzini: 3.5 goals/90 min. Without: 1.2 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)
- 5Lecce with Corrie Ndaba: 1.8 goals/90 min. Without: 0.7 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
26%
Draw
32%
Away Win
42%
Goals
Over 1.5
67%
Under 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
38%
Under 2.5
62%
Over 3.5
18%
Under 3.5
82%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
58%
Away or Draw
74%
No Draw
68%
Both Score
Yes
46%
No
54%
Key Factors
- The mathematical analysis favors Fiorentina with a 42% probability of winning
- Lecce displays an alarming form of four consecutive losses and a stagnating goal production of 0.6 goals per game recently
- Fiorentina's consistently higher average shots on target (3.4) compared to Lecce's (1.8) in their last five matches
Risk Factors
- Lecce averages only 0.65 goals per home game this season
- Lecce recorded an average of only 1.8 shots on target in their last 5 games
Overview
Lecce (18th place, 27 points) host Fiorentina (15th place, 35 points) at the Stadio Comunale Via del Mare. The Serie A match on April 20, 2026, 8:45 PM. Lecce is fighting against relegation, while Fiorentina aims to distance themselves from the drop zone.
Form
Lecce's form in their last five games is WLLLL (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss).
Lecce has suffered four consecutive losses recently.
Their last five matches were a 0-2 away loss against Bologna, a 0-3 home loss against Atalanta, a 0-1 away loss against Roma, a 1-2 away loss against Napoli, and a 2-1 home win against Cremonese.
Fiorentina, however, showed a much better form of DWLWW (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss).
They have secured two consecutive wins recently.
Fiorentina's last five games included a 2-1 home win against Crystal Palace, a 1-0 home win against Lazio, a 0-3 away loss against Crystal Palace, a 1-0 away win against Hellas Verona, and a 1-1 home draw against Inter.
Statistics
Lecce averages 0.66 goals scored per game and concedes an average of 1.41 goals per game this season.
Fiorentina demonstrates a stronger offense with an average of 1.16 goals per match and 1.38 goals conceded per game.
Lecce kept 8 clean sheets this season, while Fiorentina achieved 7.
Both teams scored in 11 out of 32 Lecce matches, and in 20 out of 32 Fiorentina matches.
Lecce's goal production is currently stagnating at 0.6 goals, compared to their season average of 0.8 goals.
Fiorentina's goal production is also currently stagnating at 1.0 goals, with a season average of 1.4 goals.
The Stadio Comunale Via del Mare averages 2.2 total goals per game, with both teams scoring in 40% of matches and over 2.5 goals occurring in 60% of matches.
Head-to-Head
In five recent head-to-head matches, the record between Lecce and Fiorentina is even.
Both teams have secured two wins each, with one match ending in a draw.
The goal difference stands at 6:11 in favor of Fiorentina.
The last encounter on November 2, 2025, resulted in a 1-0 victory for Fiorentina at home.
Key Players
For Lecce, forward Santiago Pierotti has scored one goal in his last five games, showing a rising form trend.
Defender Antonino Gallo contributed two assists in his last five appearances and shows stable form.
Midfielder Lassana Coulibaly scored one goal in his last five matches and has stable form.
For Fiorentina, midfielder Cher Ndour is in rising form with two goals in the last five games.
Midfielder Rolando Mandragora recorded one assist in his last four matches and shows rising form.
Forward Albert Gudmundsson scored one goal and provided one assist in his last five games, despite a slightly declining form trend.
Goalkeepers
Lecce's goalkeeper Wladimiro Falcone has kept 8 clean sheets this season.
On the opposing side, David de Gea of Fiorentina has recorded 7 clean sheets in the current campaign.
Influences
Lecce shows low home goal threat with an average of 0.65 goals scored per game, while conceding 1.29 home goals.
Fiorentina scores an average of 1.13 goals away and concedes 1.60 goals per away match.
The Stadio Comunale Via del Mare averages 2.2 total goals per game, with both teams scoring in 40% of matches and over 2.5 goals occurring in 60% of matches.