Serie A
Napoli - Lazio
04/18/2026, 04:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.3
2.4
1.1
1:1
15%0:0
11%1:0
10%0:1
9%2:1
8%What influences the xG?
Napoli
Lazio
The Lab
- 1Lazio with Daniel Maldini: 1.8 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 2Napoli: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- 3Napoli with Pasquale Mazzocchi : 7.8 goals/90 min. Without: 1 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)
- 4Napoli: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes
- 5Napoli: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
37%
Draw
31%
Away Win
32%
Goals
Over 1.5
71%
Under 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
43%
Under 2.5
57%
Over 3.5
22%
Under 3.5
78%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
68%
Away or Draw
63%
No Draw
69%
Both Score
Yes
51%
No
49%
Key Factors
- Prediction Model: The model forecasts a narrow home win for Napoli with a 37% probability and 1.25 expected goals, compared to 32% for Lazio and 1.15 expected goals.
- Home Strength and Form: Napoli holds 2nd place with 66 points and displays strong recent form (W-W-W-W-D). At home, they average 1.53 goals scored and concede only 0.76 goals per game.
- Tactical Playstyle: Napoli is possession-dominant (66% possession) and offensively strong with an average of 5.4 shots on target per game, while Lazio plays a more balanced style.
Risk Factors
- Close Pipeline Predictions: The model forecasts a 31% probability for a draw and a 32% probability for an away win, indicating a tight contest.
- Lazio's H2H Edge: In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Lazio holds a slight advantage with 2 wins compared to Napoli's 1 win.
- Napoli's Injury Concerns: Napoli faces several absences, including R. Lukaku Menama (Muscle Injury), A. Vergara (Foot Injury), and G. Di Lorenzo (Knee Injury).
Overview
Napoli (2nd place, 66 points) host Lazio (10th place, 44 points) at the Stadio Diego Armando Maradona. The Serie A match takes place on April 18, 2026, 4:00 PM. Napoli is fighting for the top spot, while Lazio aims to close in on European qualification places.
Form
Napoli is in good form with a W-W-W-W-D record (4 wins, 1 draw, 0 losses). Their last match was a 1-1 draw away against Parma. Lazio's form is W-W-W-D-L (3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss). Their last game was a 0-1 loss away to Fiorentina. W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss.
Statistics
Napoli averages 1.5 goals scored and 0.97 goals conceded per game. At home, these figures improve to 1.53 goals scored and 0.76 goals conceded. Lazio averages 1.0 goals scored and 0.94 goals conceded. Away from home, Lazio also scores 1.0 goals but concedes 1.2 goals per game. Napoli has 11 clean sheets, Lazio has 14. At the Stadio Diego Armando Maradona, an average of 2.6 goals are scored per game, and both teams scored in 4 out of 5 matches.
Head-to-Head
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Napoli secured 1 win, Lazio 2 wins, and there were 2 draws. Napoli scored 5 goals, while Lazio scored 6 goals. The last encounter on January 4, 2026, ended in a 2-0 victory for Napoli, although Lazio has been more dominant in recent overall matchups.
Key Players
For Napoli, Rasmus Højlund (10 goals, 3 assists) and Scott McTominay (8 goals, 3 assists) are key offensive players. Matteo Politano shows a rising form with 2 goals and 2 assists in the last 5 games. For Lazio, Danilo Cataldi (3 goals, 3 assists) and Kenneth Taylor (3 goals, 1 assist) stand out, with Taylor showing an upward form trend. Matteo Cancellieri also contributed 3 goals and 1 assist.
Goalkeepers
Vanja Milinković-Savić is in goal for Napoli, while Edoardo Motta starts for Lazio. Napoli has recorded 11 clean sheets this season, while Lazio boasts an impressive 14 clean sheets.
Influences
Napoli benefits from a home advantage, scoring 1.53 goals and conceding only 0.76 goals per home game. The Stadio Diego Armando Maradona averages 2.6 total goals per match. Both teams scored in 80% of games, and 60% of matches ended with over 2.5 goals.