Serie A
Udinese - Parma
04/18/2026, 01:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.1
1.9
0.8
0:0
17%1:1
15%1:0
14%0:1
11%2:0
8%What influences the xG?
Udinese
Parma
The Lab
- 1Udinese: first goal in 5 of 7 games (71%)
- 2Udinese with Hassane Kamara: 2.2 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 3Parma with Gaetano Oristanio: 3 goals/90 min. Without: 1 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 4Parma: 6 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
38%
Draw
35%
Away Win
26%
Goals
Over 1.5
58%
Under 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
29%
Under 2.5
71%
Over 3.5
12%
Under 3.5
88%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
74%
Away or Draw
62%
No Draw
65%
Both Score
Yes
39%
No
61%
Key Factors
- Pipeline Prediction: The model gives Udinese a 39% home win probability or a 35% draw probability
- Form Advantage: Udinese recorded 2 wins and 2 draws in their last 5 games, while Parma secured no victories
- Head-to-Head Dominance: Udinese won all 3 previous encounters against Parma
Risk Factors
- Parma has averaged only 2.0 shots on target in their last 5 games, indicating low offensive penetration
- The model predicts a high 35% probability for a draw
- The probability for over 2.5 goals is only 29% according to the model, suggesting a rather low-scoring game
Overview
Udinese (11th place, 43 points) host Parma (14th place, 36 points) at the Dacia Arena in a Serie A match on April 18, 2026, 3:00 PM
The hosts are looking to solidify their position in the top half of the table, while Parma aims to maintain distance from the relegation zone
The mathematical analysis favors Udinese with a home win probability of 39%
Form
Udinese recently showed an upward trend in form with DLWDW
In their last five matches, they recorded 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss
Their last outing was a 3-0 victory against AC Milan
Parma, on the other hand, is in a difficult phase with DLLDD
They have not secured a win in their last five games, instead achieving 3 draws and suffering 2 losses
Their most recent match ended in a 1-1 draw against Napoli
Statistics
Udinese scores an average of 1.23 goals per home game and concedes 1.46 goals
Parma scores an average of 0.73 goals per away game and concedes 1.2 goals
The Dacia Arena statistics show an average of 1.6 goals per game
Both teams scored in 20% of the last five matches at the stadium
More than 2.5 goals were scored in 40% of the matches
Udinese is currently scoring more frequently (1.8 goals per game) than their season average (1.2 goals per game)
Head-to-Head
In the 3 direct encounters over recent years, Udinese has dominated this fixture
Udinese won all 3 matches, while Parma recorded no victories
The goal difference stands at 6:2 in favor of Udinese
The last meeting on November 29, 2025, ended in a 2-0 home win for Udinese
Key Players
For Udinese, NicolĆ² Zaniolo is a key player with 5 goals and 6 assists this season, providing 3 assists in the last 5 games
Jurgen Ekkelenkamp showed good form with 2 goals and 1 assist in the last 5 matches, totaling 5 goals and 2 assists
Arthur Atta contributed 3 goals and 3 assists this season, with 1 goal in the last 5 matches
On Parma's side, Mateo Pellegrino is the top scorer with 8 season goals and 1 assist, also scoring once in the last 5 games
AdriƔn BernabƩ recorded 3 goals and 1 assist this season, scoring one goal in the last 5 matches
Gabriel Strefezza contributed 1 goal and 1 assist this season, both in the last 5 games
Goalkeepers
Maduka Okoye, Udinese's goalkeeper, has made 24 appearances this season and achieved 9 clean sheets
His form trend shows a positive development
Zion Suzuki, Parma's goalkeeper, has played in 15 games and recorded 7 clean sheets
Influences
The Dacia Arena has an average of 1.6 goals per game in the last five matches
Both teams scored in 1 of 5 games
More than 2.5 goals were scored in 2 of 5 games
Udinese scores an average of 1.23 goals at home and concedes 1.46 goals
Parma scores 0.73 goals away and concedes 1.2 goals
The match will be played on a grass pitch