🇮🇹

Serie A

Juventus - Bologna

04/19/2026, 06:45 PM

2 : 0
Expected Goals
Juventus
1.9
Total xG
3.0
Bologna
1.1
Most Likely Scores

1:1

12%

2:1

10%

2:0

9%

3:1

6%

1:2

6%
What influences the xG?
JUVBOL

Juventus

Attack strength (1.69x league average)
+0.83
4 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.3 league avg)
-0.09
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.8 goals/match)
-0.01
Kenan Yıldız on the bench (10 goals, 6 assists)
Khéphren Thuram on the bench (2 goals, 2 assists)
19% of goal output missing (only 83% available)

Bologna

3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.14
Declining form (1 vs 1.5 season average)
-0.14
Federico Bernardeschi on the bench (2 goals, 2 assists)
Jonathan Rowe on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists)
Nikola Moro on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Juventus: first goal in 6 of 8 games (75%)

  • 2
    Bologna with Tommaso Pobega: 3.5 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Juventus with Mattia Perin: 2.4 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 4
    Bologna: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes

  • 5
    Juventus: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

54%

Draw

25%

Away Win

20%

Goals

Over 1.5

81%

Under 1.5

19%

Over 2.5

57%

Under 2.5

43%

Over 3.5

35%

Under 3.5

65%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

80%

Away or Draw

46%

No Draw

75%

Both Score

Yes

58%

No

42%

Key Factors
  • Juventus home strength: Juventus is very strong at home, averaging 1.68 goals scored and 0.68 goals conceded at home
  • Form difference: Juventus is unbeaten in their last 5 games (WWDWW), while Bologna recorded 3 losses in 5 games (LWLWL)
  • Pipeline forecast: The mathematical analysis gives a clear favorite role for a home win with 54%
Risk Factors
  • Tight schedule: Bologna had only 3 days of rest since their last match, which could affect their physical condition
  • Historical draw tendency: 4 out of 5 direct encounters ended in a draw
  • Unexpected match outcome: The pipeline analysis shows a 25% probability for a draw
Overview

Juventus (4th place, 60 points) hosts Bologna (8th place, 48 points) at Juventus Stadium in a Serie A match on April 19, 2026, 8:45 PM. Juventus is aiming for a Champions League spot, while Bologna is fighting for European qualification. The mathematical analysis predicts a home win with 54%, a draw with 25%, and an away win with 20%.

Form

Juventus shows strong form with 4 wins and 1 draw (WWDWW) in their last 5 matches. Most recently, they achieved a 1-0 away win against Atalanta and a 2-0 home win against Genoa. The team scored 1.8 goals per game and conceded 0.2 goals on average during this period. Bologna, on the other hand, recorded 2 wins and 3 losses (LWLWL) in their last 5 games. Their last match was a 0-4 away loss against Aston Villa, preceded by a 2-0 home win against Lecce. The goal difference in the last match was negative, and the trend is declining. W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Juventus averages 1.72 goals scored and 0.91 goals conceded per game this season. At home, they score 1.68 goals and concede only 0.68 goals on average. The team kept 13 clean sheets. Bologna averages 1.31 goals scored and 1.16 goals conceded per game. Away, their average is 1.3 goals scored and 0.95 goals conceded. Bologna recorded 10 clean sheets this season. At this venue, the last 5 games averaged 2.6 total goals, with both teams scoring in 40% of matches and over 2.5 goals in 40%.

Head-to-Head

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Juventus has 1 win and there have been 4 draws. Bologna has not won any of these games. Juventus scored a total of 8 goals, while Bologna scored 7 goals. The last encounter on December 14, 2025, ended in a 1-0 victory for Juventus. Juventus has been the dominant team in recent direct clashes.

Key Players

For Juventus, Jérémie Boga, an attacker, shows rising form with 3 goals in 5 games and an average rating of 7.71. Manuel Locatelli in midfield contributed 1 assist in his last 5 games and has a rating of 7.72. Jonathan David, also an attacker, scored 2 goals in his last 5 games with a rating of 7.08. For Bologna, defender Juan Miranda stands out with 2 assists in his last 5 games and an average rating of 7.29. Midfielder Remo Freuler scored 1 goal in his last 5 appearances with a rating of 6.92. Attacker Riccardo Orsolini scored 1 goal in his last 5 games and achieved a rating of 6.80.

Goalkeepers

Juventus goalkeeper Michele Di Gregorio has 0 goals and 0 assists in 25 appearances, with an average rating of 6.84. Juventus has kept 13 clean sheets this season. For Bologna, Federico Ravaglia is in goal, with 0 goals and 0 assists in 15 appearances and a rating of 6.83. Bologna has recorded 10 clean sheets this season.

Influences

Juventus benefits from a home advantage, reflected in an average of 1.68 goals scored and only 0.68 goals conceded at home. Juventus Stadium, with its grass surface, is known for games averaging 2.6 goals. Historically, 40% of matches here saw both teams score, and 40% had over 2.5 goals.

Ready to Get Started?

Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.