Serie A
Inter - Cagliari
04/17/2026, 06:45 PM
Expected Goals
2.3
3.0
0.7
2:0
14%3:0
10%2:1
9%1:1
9%3:1
7%What influences the xG?
Inter
Cagliari
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
73%
Draw
19%
Away Win
8%
Goals
Over 1.5
81%
Under 1.5
19%
Over 2.5
57%
Under 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
35%
Under 3.5
65%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
92%
Away or Draw
27%
No Draw
81%
Both Score
Yes
45%
No
55%
Key Factors
- Inter Milan has a high home win probability of 73% according to mathematical analysis
- Inter's offense is very strong this season with an average of 2.34 goals per game
- Cagliari has a weak away record with an average of 1.62 goals conceded per away game
Risk Factors
- Cagliari averaged only 3.0 shots on target in their last 5 matches
Overview
Inter Milan (1st place, 75 points) host Cagliari Calcio (16th place, 33 points) at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza
Serie A match on April 17, 2026, 8:45 PM
Inter aims to solidify its lead at the top of the table
Cagliari is fighting for crucial points in the relegation battle
Form
Inter's form across all competitions: LDDWW (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
Inter won 2 of their last 5 matches, drew 2, and lost 1
The Inter team recently recorded 2 consecutive wins
Cagliari's form across all competitions: LLLLW
Cagliari won 1 of their last 5 matches and lost 4 times
Cagliari ended a streak of 4 losses with a win in their last game
Statistics
Inter shows strong offense with an average of 2.34 goals per game this season
At home, Inter scored 44 goals and conceded 15 goals, which corresponds to an average of 2.32 home goals and 0.79 home goals conceded
Cagliari scored an average of 1.03 goals per game and conceded 1.38 goals
Away, Cagliari scored an average of 1.00 goals and conceded 1.62 goals
Inter kept 15 clean sheets this season, while Cagliari achieved 7 clean sheets
At Stadio Giuseppe Meazza, an average of 3.6 goals per game were scored recently
In 3 of 5 matches at this stadium, both teams scored and in 3 of 5 matches, more than 2.5 goals were scored
Head-to-Head
In 5 head-to-head matches, Inter Milan dominated the record with 4 wins
Inter scored 12 goals and conceded 3 goals
Cagliari did not secure a win in these encounters, with 1 draw
The last meeting on September 27, 2025, ended in a 2:0 victory for Inter at Cagliari
Key Players
For Inter, Marcus Thuram with 10 goals and 5 assists with a rising form trend, Federico Dimarco with 6 goals and 14 assists with a declining form trend, and Hakan Çalhanoğlu with 9 goals and 4 assists with a declining form trend are important players
For Cagliari, Sebastiano Esposito stands out with 6 goals and 5 assists with a rising form trend
Marco Palestra with 1 goal and 4 assists with a declining form trend and Gianluca Gaetano with 2 goals and 3 assists with a stable form trend are other influential players
Goalkeepers
Josep Martínez guards the goal for Inter Milan, who kept 15 clean sheets this season
Elia Caprile is in goal for Cagliari Calcio, who achieved 7 clean sheets so far
Influences
Inter Milan benefits from a strong home advantage with an average of 2.32 home goals and only 0.79 home goals conceded
The Stadio Giuseppe Meazza is known for high-scoring games, with an average of 3.6 goals per match
The grass surface will influence the game
In 3 of 5 matches at this stadium, both teams scored and in 3 of 5 matches, more than 2.5 goals were scored