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Serie A

Hellas Verona - AC Milan

04/19/2026, 01:00 PM

0 : 1
Expected Goals
Hellas Verona
0.6
Total xG
1.8
AC Milan
1.2
Most Likely Scores

0:1

19%

0:0

18%

1:1

13%

0:2

12%

1:0

8%
What influences the xG?
HVAM

Hellas Verona

Attack weakness (0.46x league average)
-0.89
Defensive strength (2 conceded vs 1.3 league avg)
+0.71
Standings disadvantage (pos 19 vs 3, 16 places gap)
-0.10
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match)
-0.08
Declining form (0.6 vs 0.9 season average)
-0.08
Martin Frese on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists)
Kieron Bowie not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists)
14% of goal output missing (only 97% available)

AC Milan

Defensive strength (0.8 conceded vs 1.1 league avg)
-0.32
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.22
Declining form (0.8 vs 1.5 season average)
-0.22
Standings advantage (pos 3 vs 19, 16 places gap)
+0.09
Attack strength (1.35x league average)
-0.06
Alexis Saelemaekers on the bench (2 goals, 3 assists)
Koni De Winter on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    AC Milan with Samuele Ricci: 3.4 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Hellas Verona with Domagoj Bradarić: 1.2 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Hellas Verona: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

16%

Draw

34%

Away Win

50%

Goals

Over 1.5

55%

Under 1.5

45%

Over 2.5

27%

Under 2.5

73%

Over 3.5

11%

Under 3.5

89%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

50%

Away or Draw

84%

No Draw

66%

Both Score

Yes

33%

No

67%

Key Factors
  • AC Milan's clear dominance in head-to-head matches with 5 wins and a 9:1 goal difference in the last 5 encounters
  • AC Milan's superior league position (3rd place) compared to Hellas Verona (19th place)
  • Hellas Verona's ongoing negative streak of four consecutive losses
Risk Factors
  • Hellas Verona's low home scoring average of 0.71 goals per game
  • AC Milan's tactical metrics show an average of only 3.0 shots on target in their last 5 games
  • Several AC Milan key players such as Luka Modrić and Adrien Rabiot are showing a declining form trend
Overview

Hellas Verona (19th place, 18 points) host AC Milan (3rd place, 63 points) at the Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi

Serie A match on April 19, 2026, 3:00 PM

Hellas Verona is deep in a relegation battle, while AC Milan is fighting for a Champions League spot

Form

Hellas Verona shows a form of WLLLL (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss) in all competitions

The team recorded 1 win and 4 losses in their last five games

They recently suffered four consecutive losses

The last defeat was a 1-2 away loss against Torino

AC Milan has a form of WLWLL in all competitions

They achieved 2 wins and 3 losses in their last five matches

The last encounter ended with a 0-3 home loss against Udinese, marking their second consecutive defeat

Statistics

Hellas Verona averages 0.72 goals scored and 1.72 goals conceded per game this season

In home games, these values are 0.71 goals scored and 1.41 goals conceded per game

AC Milan shows a strong season performance with an average of 1.47 goals scored and only 0.84 goals conceded per game

Away from home, Milan's defense is particularly stable with 1.47 goals scored and 0.65 goals conceded per match

At the Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi, the average is 2.0 total goals per game

Both teams scored in 2 out of 5 games, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 2 out of 5 games

Head-to-Head

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, AC Milan has shown clear dominance

AC Milan won all 5 encounters, while Hellas Verona recorded no wins or draws

The goal difference of 9:1 clearly favors AC Milan

The last meeting on December 28, 2025, ended in a 3-0 victory for AC Milan

Key Players

For Hellas Verona, Roberto Gagliardini (Midfielder, 1 goal, 0 assists, avg rating 6.93) with declining form, Jean-Daniel Akpa Akpro (Midfielder, 1 goal, 0 assists, avg rating 6.84) with stable form, and Gift Orban (Attacker, 7 goals, 2 assists, avg rating 6.79) with stable form are key players

For AC Milan, Luka Modrić (Midfielder, 2 goals, 3 assists, avg rating 7.35) with declining form, Adrien Rabiot (Midfielder, 5 goals, 4 assists, avg rating 7.28) with declining form, and Christian Pulisic (Attacker, 8 goals, 3 assists, avg rating 7.18) with declining form are the key players

Goalkeepers

Hellas Verona is expected to start with Lorenzo Montipò in goal, who achieved 5 clean sheets this season

For AC Milan, Mike Maignan will guard the goal, having recorded 13 clean sheets this season

Influences

Hellas Verona's home scoring record at the Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi averages 0.71 goals scored and 1.41 goals conceded

AC Milan shows a strong away defense with only 0.65 goals conceded per game

The grass surface of the stadium influences the game

The last 5 games at this stadium averaged 2.0 goals per game, with both teams scoring in 2 instances

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