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Serie A

Pisa - Genoa

04/19/2026, 04:00 PM

1 : 2
Expected Goals
Pisa
1.2
Total xG
2.6
Genoa
1.4
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

1:2

9%

0:2

7%

2:1

7%

2:0

5%
What influences the xG?
PISGEN

Pisa

Defensive weakness (2 conceded vs 1.3 league avg)
+0.74
Standings disadvantage (pos 20 vs 14, 6 places gap)
-0.07
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match)
-0.06
Declining form (0.6 vs 0.8 season average)
-0.06
Attack weakness (0.72x league average)
-0.04
Mehdi Léris on the bench (1 goals, 3 assists)
Strong home record (1.1 vs 0.8 goals/match)

Genoa

Defensive weakness (1.6 conceded vs 1.1 league avg)
+0.47
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.07
Standings advantage (pos 14 vs 20, 6 places gap)
+0.04
Ruslan Malinovskyi not in squad (6 goals, 3 assists)
Vitinha on the bench (5 goals, 1 assists)
Junior Messias on the bench (3 goals, 1 assists)
Mikael Egill Ellertsson not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists)
43% of goal output missing (only 71% available)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Pisa with Rafiu Durosinmi: 1.5 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Genoa with Stefano Sabelli: 3.1 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Pisa: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

30%

Draw

30%

Away Win

40%

Goals

Over 1.5

74%

Under 1.5

26%

Over 2.5

47%

Under 2.5

53%

Over 3.5

25%

Under 3.5

75%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

60%

Away or Draw

70%

No Draw

70%

Both Score

Yes

53%

No

47%

Key Factors
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a 40% win probability for Genoa, while Pisa stands at 30%
  • Genoa shows better current form with 3 wins in their last 5 games, compared to Pisa's 1 win
  • Pisa's low offensive output at home with an average of only 0.7 goals per home game
Risk Factors
  • Pisa's weak home defense with an average of 1.9 goals conceded per home game
  • Pisa's low average shots on target per game (Ø 2.8 in the last 5 games)
Overview

Pisa (20th place, 18 points) host Genoa (14th place, 36 points) at the Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani. This Serie A match takes place on April 19, 2026, 6:00 PM. Pisa are at the bottom of the table, fighting for survival, while Genoa aims to solidify its mid-table position.

Form

Pisa has shown a form of LWLLL across all competitions in their last five matches, with a record of 1 win, 0 draws, and 4 losses. Their last outing ended in a loss, and the team has suffered 3 consecutive losses recently. Genoa, on the other hand, presents a form of WWLLW, consisting of 3 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses. Their last outing resulted in a win. (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

Statistics

Pisa averages 0.72 goals scored per game this season and concedes an average of 1.81 goals. At home, the average is 0.7 goals scored and 1.9 goals conceded. Genoa records a season average of 1.19 goals scored and 1.41 goals conceded per game. Away from home, Genoa averages 1.21 goals scored and 1.64 goals conceded. The Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani sees an average of 2.6 goals per game. In 3 out of 5 matches, both teams scored, and in 3 out of 5 matches, there were over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-Head

There has been 1 head-to-head encounter between these two teams so far. This match, on January 3, 2026, ended in a 1-1 draw, with both teams scoring 1 goal. The historical record therefore shows an even balance of power.

Key Players

For Pisa, Stefano Moreo stands out as top scorer with 6 goals and 1 assist in 31 appearances. Antonio Caracciolo has scored 2 goals this season and recently showed 2 goals in 5 games as well. Matteo Tramoni contributed 2 goals and 2 assists in 26 appearances. Not nominated for Pisa is Mehdi Léris (1G/3A). For Genoa, Lorenzo Colombo is a key player with 6 goals and 1 assist in 32 appearances. Leo ØstigÄrd has scored 5 goals and 1 assist in 26 appearances, and Aarón Martín provided 1 goal and 5 assists in 28 games. Not nominated for Genoa are Ruslan Malinovskyi (6G/3A), Vitinha (5G/1A), Junior Messias (3G/1A) and Mikael Egill Ellertsson (1G/1A).

Goalkeepers

In goal for Pisa is Adrian Semper, who has an average rating of 6.92 across 19 season appearances and has contributed to 5 clean sheets. For Genoa, Justin Bijlow is the nominated goalkeeper, achieving an average rating of 6.86 in 11 games and recording 7 clean sheets this season.

Influences

The Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani averages 2.6 goals per game. Both teams scored in 60% of matches, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 60% of games. Pisa scored an average of 0.7 goals at home and conceded 1.9 goals per match. Genoa showed an away performance of an average of 1.21 goals scored and 1.64 goals conceded. The surface is grass.

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