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Serie A

Roma - Atalanta

04/18/2026, 06:45 PM

1 : 1
Expected Goals
Roma
1.6
Total xG
2.8
Atalanta
1.2
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

2:1

9%

2:0

8%

1:2

7%

2:2

6%
What influences the xG?
ROMATA

Roma

Attack strength (1.35x league average)
+0.45
Defensive strength (1 conceded vs 1.3 league avg)
-0.32
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match)
+0.15
Rising form (2 vs 1.5 season average)
+0.15
Lorenzo Pellegrini not in squad (4 goals, 2 assists)
Niccolò Pisilli on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists)

Atalanta

4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.11
Declining form (1.2 vs 1.6 season average)
-0.11
Attack strength (1.41x league average)
+0.03
Nicola Zalewski on the bench (2 goals, 4 assists)
Lorenzo Bernasconi on the bench (0 goals, 3 assists)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Atalanta: scored only in H2 in 5 consecutive games (5 of 8 total)

  • 2
    Atalanta with Kamaldeen Sulemana: 3.2 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Atalanta: 79% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)

  • 4
    Roma with Neil El Aynaoui: 5.2 goals/90 min. Without: 1.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 5
    Roma: 6 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

45%

Draw

28%

Away Win

27%

Goals

Over 1.5

79%

Under 1.5

21%

Over 2.5

53%

Under 2.5

47%

Over 3.5

31%

Under 3.5

69%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

73%

Away or Draw

55%

No Draw

72%

Both Score

Yes

58%

No

42%

Key Factors
  • Roma's home strength with a very good defense (Avg. 0.5 goals conceded per home game)
  • Atalanta's dominance in head-to-head matches with 4 wins in the last 5 encounters
  • The mathematical analysis sees Roma as favorites with a home win probability of 45%
Risk Factors
  • Roma averaged 3.2 shots on target in their last 5 matches
  • Atalanta's goal production is currently stagnating at 1.2 goals per game, while the season average is 1.6 goals
Overview

Roma (6th place, 57 points) host Atalanta (7th place, 53 points) at the Stadio Olimpico

This Serie A match takes place on April 18, 2026, 8:45 PM

Both teams are fighting for crucial points in the race for European qualification spots

Form

Roma's form in the last 5 matches is LLWLW

This corresponds to 2 wins and 3 losses

Roma won their last match

Atalanta's form in the last 5 matches is DLWWL

This means 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses

Atalanta lost their last match

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Roma averages 1.41 goals scored and concedes 0.88 goals per game this season

In home games, Roma is defensively very strong, conceding only 0.5 goals per game

Atalanta averages 1.38 goals scored and concedes 0.88 goals per game

Away from home, Atalanta concedes an average of 1.0 goal

The Stadio Olimpico saw an average of 2.8 goals per game in the last 5 matches

In 40% of games at the Stadio Olimpico, both teams scored, and 40% ended with over 2.5 goals

Head-to-Head

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Atalanta dominated with 4 wins

Roma did not win any of these encounters, with 1 draw

Atalanta scored 8 goals, while Roma managed 3 goals

The last encounter was won by Atalanta on January 3, 2026, with a 1-0 score

Key Players

Donyell Malen of Roma scored 10 goals this season and maintains stable form

Matías Soulé contributed 6 goals and 5 assists, his form is declining

Neil El Aynaoui scored 2 goals in the last 5 matches and shows a rising form

For Atalanta, Nikola Krstović is a key player with 9 goals and 4 assists, his form is declining

Charles De Ketelaere recorded 3 goals and 5 assists, and his form is rising

Giorgio Scalvini scored 3 goals this season and his form is stable

Goalkeepers

Mile Svilar, Roma's goalkeeper, played in 32 season matches and achieved 14 clean sheets

In home games, Svilar kept 9 clean sheets

Marco Carnesecchi, Atalanta's goalkeeper, played in 32 season matches and recorded 12 clean sheets

In away games, Carnesecchi kept 6 clean sheets

Influences

Roma shows strong home performance with an average of 1.44 goals scored and 0.5 goals conceded

Atalanta scores 1.36 goals and concedes 1.0 goal per away game

The Stadio Olimpico saw an average of 2.8 goals per game on a grass surface in the last 5 matches

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