Serie A
Genoa - Como
04/26/2026, 01:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.1
2.3
1.2
1:1
15%0:0
12%0:1
10%1:0
10%1:2
8%What influences the xG?
Genoa
Como
The Lab
- 1Genoa with Stefano Sabelli: 2.9 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 2Como with Ălvaro Morata: 6.3 goals/90 min. Without: 1 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 3Como: first goal in 4 of 6 games (67%)
- 4Genoa: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes
- 5Como: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
33%
Draw
32%
Away Win
35%
Goals
Over 1.5
69%
Under 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
40%
Under 2.5
60%
Over 3.5
20%
Under 3.5
80%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
65%
Away or Draw
67%
No Draw
68%
Both Score
Yes
48%
No
52%
Key Factors
- Critical Squad Impact for Genoa: Only 54% of the usual starting XI goal threat is available without Ruslan Malinovskyi (6G/3A), Lorenzo Colombo (7G/1A), and Junior Messias (3G/1A)
- Como's Offensive Strength: Averaging 1.73 goals per game, Como surpasses Genoa's season average and currently shows an improved form with 2.8 goals compared to their season average of 2.1
- Contrasting Form Trends: Genoa shows an upward trend with 3 wins in their last 5 games (WLLWW), while Como recorded 3 losses (WDLLL) during the same period
Risk Factors
- The mathematical model shows very similar probabilities for all three outcomes, with 35% for an away win, 34% for a home win, and 32% for a draw, indicating a highly unpredictable match
- Como's defensive vulnerability: Despite a strong season record of averaging 0.85 goals conceded per game, Como has recently conceded an average of 2.25 goals per game, a significant increase from their season average of 1.03
Overview
Genoa (14th place, 39 points) host Como (6th place, 58 points) at the Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris. The Serie A match is scheduled for April 26, 2026, 3:00 PM. Genoa needs points to increase their distance from the relegation zone, while Como is fighting for a European qualification spot.
Form
Genoa's form across all competitions is WLLWW, with 3 wins and 2 losses in their last 5 games. Their last appearance ended in a win. Como shows a form of WDLLL, with 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses in their last 5 matches. Como has recently suffered 3 consecutive losses. W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss.
Statistics
Genoa averages 1.21 goals scored per game and concedes 1.39 goals. At home, they score 1.24 goals and concede 1.29 goals. Genoa kept 7 clean sheets in total, 4 of which were at home. Como's season average is 1.73 goals scored per game and only 0.85 goals conceded. Away from home, Como scores 1.77 goals and concedes 1.0 goals. Como recorded 15 clean sheets, with 7 of them away. The stadium averages 3.6 goals per game, both teams scored in 2 out of 5 matches, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 4 out of 5 matches.
Head-to-Head
In 3 head-to-head matches, there have been 0 wins for Genoa, 1 win for Como, and 2 draws. The goal difference stands at 2:3 in favor of Como. The last encounter on September 15, 2025, ended in a 1:1 draw.
Key Players
For Genoa, Leo ĂstigĂ„rd is an important player with 5 goals and 1 assist in 27 season appearances, his recent form is declining. Vitinha contributed 5 goals and 1 assist in 31 matches, his form is stable. Jeff Ekhator scored 3 goals in 26 appearances and shows stable form. For Como, Nico Paz shines with 12 goals and 6 assists in 32 games, his form is stable. Anastasios Douvikas contributed 11 goals and 1 assist in 33 appearances, his recent form is declining. Martin Baturina has 6 goals and 3 assists in 24 games and shows stable form.
Goalkeepers
Genoa's goalkeeper Justin Bijlow made 12 season appearances with an average rating of 6.87. Genoa kept a clean sheet in 7 matches, 4 of which were home games. Jean Butez of Como was in goal for 33 season matches and achieved an average rating of 7.07. Como kept a clean sheet in 15 matches, 7 of which were away games.
Influences
Home team Genoa averages 1.24 goals scored and 1.29 goals conceded in home matches. The Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris averages 3.6 goals per game, with both teams scoring in 2 out of 5 matches, and over 2.5 goals in 4 out of 5 matches.