Serie A
Fiorentina - Sassuolo
04/26/2026, 10:30 AM
Expected Goals
1.6
2.6
1.0
1:1
13%2:0
10%2:1
10%1:2
6%3:0
5%What influences the xG?
Fiorentina
Sassuolo
The Lab
- 1Sassuolo with Woyo Coulibaly: 2.9 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 2Fiorentina: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (3 of 8 total)
- 3Sassuolo: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (3 of 8 total)
- 4Fiorentina with Jacopo Fazzini: 4.9 goals/90 min. Without: 1.2 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)
- 5Fiorentina: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
51%
Draw
28%
Away Win
21%
Goals
Over 1.5
75%
Under 1.5
25%
Over 2.5
49%
Under 2.5
51%
Over 3.5
27%
Under 3.5
73%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
79%
Away or Draw
49%
No Draw
72%
Both Score
Yes
52%
No
48%
Key Factors
- Prediction: The mathematical analysis indicates a home win for Fiorentina with a 51% probability
- Form Advantage: Fiorentina shows better current form with 3 wins and 1 draw in their last 5 games compared to Sassuolo
- Offensive Performance: Fiorentina's goal production has recently stagnated (1.0 goals per game), while Sassuolo consistently scores 1.2 goals per game
Risk Factors
- Fiorentina averaged only 2.8 shots on target in their last 5 games
- Sassuolo averaged only 3.2 shots on target in their last 5 games
- Sassuolo won 2 of the last 3 direct encounters, including the most recent one with a 3:1 score
Overview
Fiorentina (15th place, 36 points) host Sassuolo (10th place, 45 points) at the Stadio Artemio Franchi. The Serie A match takes place on April 26, 2026, 12:30 PM. Fiorentina is battling in the mid-table, while Sassuolo is having a more stable season
Form
Fiorentina's recent form is WLWWD, indicating 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss in their last five matches. Their last result was a draw.
Sassuolo shows a form of LDWLW, which means 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses. Sassuolo won their last game
Statistics
Fiorentina scores an average of 1.15 goals per game and concedes 1.36 goals. At home, they average 1.18 goals scored and 1.18 goals conceded per home game. Both teams scored in 21 matches, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 18 matches.
Sassuolo scores an average of 1.24 goals per game and concedes 1.33 goals. Away from home, they score 1.25 goals and concede 1.31 goals per away game. Both teams scored in 18 matches, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 19 matches.
The analysis of Stadio Artemio Franchi shows an average of 1.8 goals per game. In 3 out of 5 matches, both teams scored, and in 2 out of 5 matches, over 2.5 goals were scored
Head-to-Head
In 3 direct encounters, Fiorentina secured 1 win and Sassuolo 2 wins. The goal difference is 6:5 in favor of Fiorentina. The last meeting on December 6, 2025, ended with a 3:1 away win for Sassuolo, highlighting their recent dominance in this matchup
Key Players
Midfielder Rolando Mandragora has 6 season goals and 3 assists with an average rating of 7.09. His form is rising with a delta of 0.28 points.
Attacker Albert Gudmundsson has 5 season goals and 4 assists, with an average rating of 6.88.
Midfielder Nicolò Fagioli has 2 season goals and 3 assists, with an average rating of 7.22.
Attacker Armand Laurienté has scored 5 goals and provided 8 assists this season with an average rating of 7.00.
Attacker Andrea Pinamonti is his team's top scorer with 8 season goals and 3 assists. His average rating is 6.75.
Midfielder Ismaël Koné has contributed 6 goals this season with an average rating of 6.84
Goalkeepers
David de Gea is Fiorentina's goalkeeper and has made 33 appearances this season. The team kept 7 clean sheets.
Stefano Turati is Sassuolo's goalkeeper and has featured in 2 games this season. The team achieved 6 clean sheets this season
Influences
The Stadio Artemio Franchi averages 1.8 goals per game. Fiorentina has scored 20 goals and conceded 20 goals in 17 home games. Sassuolo has scored 20 goals and conceded 21 goals in 16 away games