Serie A
AC Milan - Juventus
04/26/2026, 06:45 PM
Expected Goals
1.7
3.3
1.5
1:1
12%2:1
9%1:2
8%2:2
7%2:0
6%What influences the xG?
AC Milan
Juventus
The Lab
- 1Juventus: first goal in 7 of 8 games (88%)
- 2AC Milan with Samuele Ricci: 4 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 3Juventus with Federico Gatti: 5.9 goals/90 min. Without: 1.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 4Juventus: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games
- 5Juventus: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
41%
Draw
26%
Away Win
33%
Goals
Over 1.5
85%
Under 1.5
15%
Over 2.5
63%
Under 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
41%
Under 3.5
59%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
67%
Away or Draw
59%
No Draw
74%
Both Score
Yes
66%
No
34%
Key Factors
- Juventus is in strong form with 4 wins and 1 draw in their last five games
- Juventus shows offensive strength with an average of 5.4 shots on target per game, while AC Milan only averages 3.2 shots on target per game
- The historical record favors Juventus, who remained unbeaten in the last five direct encounters (2 wins, 3 draws)
Risk Factors
- AC Milan's goal production has recently dropped to 0.8 goals, compared to their season average of 1.5 goals
- AC Milan averaged only 3.2 shots on target in their last five games
- The majority of AC Milan's key offensive players, including Rafael LeĆ£o and Christian Pulisic, show a declining form trend
Overview
AC Milan (3rd place, 66 points) host Juventus (4th place, 63 points) at the Stadio Giuseppe Meazza
Serie A match on April 26, 2026, 8:45 PM
This is a crucial encounter in the battle for Champions League spots, with only three points separating the teams in the table
Form
AC Milan shows mixed form with LWLLW (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss) in their last five matches
The Rossoneri recorded 2 wins and 3 losses in this period
Juventus is in excellent shape with WDWWW (4 wins, 1 draw, 0 losses) from their last five games
The Old Lady has an impressive run of three consecutive wins
Statistics
AC Milan scored an average of 1.45 goals per game this season and conceded 0.82 goals
At home, they average 1.47 goals scored and 1.07 goals conceded
Juventus has an overall season average of 1.73 goals per game and conceded 0.88 goals
Away from home, Juventus scores an average of 1.77 goals and concedes 1.23 goals
AC Milan's goal production has recently stalled at 0.8 goals, compared to their season average of 1.5 goals
Juventus' goal production has recently stalled at 1.4 goals, compared to their season average of 1.9 goals
The Stadio Giuseppe Meazza is known for high-scoring matches, with an average of 4.6 goals per game
Both teams scored in 3 of 5 games, and all 5 games ended with over 2.5 goals
Head-to-Head
In the last five head-to-head encounters, AC Milan has not managed a single win
Juventus won 2 of these matches, while 3 games ended in a draw
The goal difference of 3:0 clearly favors Juventus
The last meeting on October 5, 2025, ended in a goalless 0-0 draw
Key Players
For AC Milan, Rafael LeĆ£o (9 goals, 3 assists) and Christian Pulisic (8 goals, 3 assists) are important attacking players, both showing a declining form trend
Adrien Rabiot contributed 6 goals and 4 assists, and his form is also declining
For Juventus, Jonathan David impresses with 6 goals and 4 assists, and his form trend is rising
Weston McKennie (5 goals, 5 assists) shows stable form
Bremer (4 goals, 3 assists) also shows a rising form trend
Goalkeepers
AC Milan's goalkeeper Mike Maignan has recorded 14 clean sheets this season but shows a declining form trend in the last five games
Juventus goalkeeper Michele Di Gregorio also has 14 clean sheets and shows a rising form trend
Influences
AC Milan enjoys the home advantage at the Stadio Giuseppe Meazza, where they have scored 22 goals and conceded 16 goals in 15 home games
The stadium is known for high-scoring games, with an average of 4.6 goals per match and 100% Over 2.5 goals in the last five games
The grass pitch provides normal playing conditions