Serie A
Lazio - Udinese
04/27/2026, 06:45 PM
Expected Goals
1.3
2.4
1.0
1:1
15%0:0
11%1:0
11%2:1
9%2:0
8%What influences the xG?
Lazio
Udinese
The Lab
- 1Lazio: first goal in 6 of 8 games (75%)
- 2Udinese with Lennon Miller: 10 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 3Lazio with Mario Gila: 2.1 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 4Lazio: scored only after the break in 4 of 8 games
- 5Lazio: 45% of all goals between minutes 76-90 (5 of 11)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
42%
Draw
31%
Away Win
27%
Goals
Over 1.5
71%
Under 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
43%
Under 2.5
57%
Over 3.5
22%
Under 3.5
78%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
73%
Away or Draw
58%
No Draw
69%
Both Score
Yes
50%
No
50%
Key Factors
- The mathematical analysis predicts a home win probability of 42% for Lazio
- Lazio shows a solid defensive performance at home with an average of 0.86 goals conceded per home game
- Lazio averaged 4.4 shots on target in the last 5 games, compared to Udinese's 3.8
Risk Factors
- The mathematical prediction indicates a 31% probability for a draw and 27% for an away win
- Recent direct encounters show a dominance by Udinese
Overview
Lazio (9th place, 47 points) host Udinese (11th place, 43 points) at the Stadio Olimpico. Serie A match on April 27, 2026, 8:45 PM. Important points are at stake for both teams in the midfield of the table.
Form
Lazio's form in the last five games is WDLWD (2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss), with their last match being a 1-1 draw against Atalanta. Udinese's form is LWDWL (2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses), and they lost their last game 0-1 against Parma. W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss.
Statistics
Lazio averages 1.03 goals scored and 0.91 goals conceded per game. At home, they average 1.05 goals scored and 0.86 goals conceded. They have 15 clean sheets and 8 games with over 2.5 goals. Udinese averages 1.15 goals scored and 1.30 goals conceded per game. Away, they average 1.16 goals scored and 1.21 goals conceded. They have 9 clean sheets and 16 games with over 2.5 goals. At the Stadio Olimpico, an average of 3.0 goals are scored per game, and both teams scored in 3 of 5 matches.
Head-to-Head
In 5 head-to-head matches, Lazio recorded 1 win, Udinese 2 wins, and there were 2 draws. The goal difference is 6:7 in favor of Udinese. The last encounter on December 27, 2025, ended in a 1-1 draw. Recent direct matches suggest a slight dominance by Udinese.
Key Players
For Lazio, Kenneth Taylor (2 goals, 2 assists in last 5 games, avg 7.28 rating), Alessio Romagnoli (1 goal in last 5 games, avg 7.27 rating), and Matteo Cancellieri (1 goal, 1 assist in last 5 games, avg 6.96 rating) are in good form. Not in the lineup are Mattia Zaccagni (3 goals, 0 assists this season) and Adam Marusic (1 goal, 2 assists this season), who together represent 13% of the usual starting XI's goal threat. For Udinese, Jurgen Ekkelenkamp shows rising form with 2 goals and 1 assist in the last 5 games (avg 7.16 rating). Nicolò Zaniolo provided 2 assists in his last 5 appearances (avg 6.73 rating), while defender Oumar Solet achieved an avg 7.47 rating in his last 4 games. Keinan Davis (10 goals, 3 assists this season), who represents 16% of the usual starting XI's goal threat, is not in the lineup.
Goalkeepers
Lazio goalkeeper Edoardo Motta has played in 5 games (avg 6.97 rating in last 5 games). Lazio has kept 15 clean sheets this season. Udinese goalkeeper Maduka Okoye played in 4 of the last 5 matches (avg 6.71 rating in last 4 games). Udinese achieved 9 clean sheets this season.
Influences
Lazio scores an average of 1.05 goals at home and concedes 0.86 goals per game, indicating a certain home advantage. At the Stadio Olimpico, the average is 3.0 goals per match. Both teams scored in 3 of 5 games, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 2 of 5 games. The grass pitch at the Stadio Olimpico provides standard playing conditions.