Serie A
Hellas Verona - Lecce
04/25/2026, 06:45 PM
Expected Goals
0.9
1.5
0.6
0:0
24%1:0
18%1:1
14%0:1
12%2:0
9%What influences the xG?
Hellas Verona
Lecce
The Lab
- 1Hellas Verona with Amin Sarr: 1.9 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 2Hellas Verona: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- 3Lecce: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- 4Lecce with Corrie Ndaba: 1.3 goals/90 min. Without: 0.7 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
38%
Draw
40%
Away Win
22%
Goals
Over 1.5
45%
Under 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
19%
Under 2.5
81%
Over 3.5
6%
Under 3.5
94%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
78%
Away or Draw
62%
No Draw
60%
Both Score
Yes
28%
No
72%
Key Factors
- The mathematical analysis predicts a tight game with a 40% probability for a draw and 38% for a home win
- Hellas Verona will be without Gift Orban, leaving only 69% of their usual starting XI's goal threat available
- Both teams are in poor form, with Hellas Verona suffering five consecutive losses and Lecce recording four losses and one draw
Risk Factors
- Hellas Verona scores an average of only 0.71 goals per home game
- Lecce averaged only 2.0 shots on target in their last 5 games, indicating few attempts on goal
Overview
Hellas Verona (19th place, 18 points) host Lecce (18th place, 28 points) at the Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi. This is a crucial Serie A match in the relegation battle on April 25, 2026, 8:45 PM. Both teams desperately need points to escape the bottom of the table
Form
Hellas Verona are on a run of five consecutive losses (LLLLL)
Hellas Verona's last five games ended 0-1 against AC Milan, 1-2 against Torino, 0-1 against Fiorentina, 0-1 against Atalanta, and 0-2 against Genoa
Lecce managed to get one point in their last five games (LLLLD)
Lecce's last five games ended 1-1 against Fiorentina, 0-2 against Bologna, 0-3 against Atalanta, 0-1 against Roma, and 1-2 against Napoli
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Statistics
Hellas Verona averages 0.7 goals scored and 1.7 goals conceded per game this season
They kept 5 clean sheets and both teams scored in 16 games
At home, Hellas Verona averages 0.71 goals scored and 1.47 goals conceded
Lecce averages 0.67 goals scored and 1.39 goals conceded per game
They kept 8 clean sheets and both teams scored in 12 games
Away from home, Lecce averages 0.67 goals scored and 1.53 goals conceded
The last 5 games at Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi averaged 1.4 goals per game
Both teams scored in only 1 out of 5 games, and only 1 out of 5 games ended with over 2.5 goals
Head-to-Head
In a total of 5 head-to-head matches, Hellas Verona and Lecce each recorded 1 win
3 matches ended in a draw
Both teams scored 4 goals in direct comparison
The last encounter on November 8, 2025, ended in a 0-0 draw
Recent head-to-head encounters show an even balance of power
Key Players
For Hellas Verona, Kieron Bowie is an important attacking player with 2 goals in 9 season appearances, his form is stable
Antoine Bernede is a midfielder with 1 goal and 2 assists in 28 season appearances, his form is stable
Roberto Gagliardini contributed 1 season goal in 25 appearances, however, his form is slightly declining
For Lecce, Lameck Banda is a key player with 3 goals and 3 assists in 27 season appearances
Lassana Coulibaly is present in midfield with 3 goals and 1 assist in 28 appearances
Antonino Gallo has provided 4 assists in 32 season appearances, his form shows an upward trend
Goalkeepers
Hellas Verona's goalkeeper, Lorenzo Montipò, played in 30 season games and kept 5 clean sheets
For Lecce, Wladimiro Falcone has featured in 33 games and recorded 8 clean sheets
Influences
The Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi has seen an average of 1.4 goals per game in the last 5 matches
Both teams scored in only 1 out of 5 games, and only 1 out of 5 games ended with over 2.5 goals
This suggests a tendency for low-scoring encounters at this venue