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Serie A

Bologna - Roma

04/25/2026, 04:00 PM

0 : 2
Expected Goals
Bologna
1.6
Total xG
2.6
Roma
1.1
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

2:1

9%

2:0

9%

1:2

7%

2:2

5%
What influences the xG?
BOLROM

Bologna

3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.13
Declining form (1 vs 1.4 season average)
-0.13
Federico Bernardeschi not in squad (2 goals, 2 assists)
Nikola Moro on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists)

Roma

3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match)
+0.16
Rising form (2 vs 1.5 season average)
+0.16
Lorenzo Pellegrini not in squad (4 goals, 2 assists)
Devyne Rensch on the bench (0 goals, 4 assists)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Bologna with Tommaso Pobega: 3.6 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Roma with Stephan El Shaarawy: 3.7 goals/90 min. Without: 1 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Roma: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes

  • 4
    Roma: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

46%

Draw

28%

Away Win

25%

Goals

Over 1.5

76%

Under 1.5

24%

Over 2.5

49%

Under 2.5

51%

Over 3.5

27%

Under 3.5

73%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

75%

Away or Draw

54%

No Draw

72%

Both Score

Yes

54%

No

46%

Key Factors
  • Prediction: The mathematical analysis indicates a 46% home win probability for Bologna
  • Head-to-Head Dominance: Bologna won two of the last five direct encounters against Roma, including the last match with a 4:3 score
  • Tactical Strength: Roma averaged 4.8 shots on target in their last 5 games, compared to Bologna's 3.8
Risk Factors
  • Bologna's goal production is stagnant (1.0) compared to their season average (1.4), indicating a negative form trend
  • Bologna with reduced assist strength (75% of usual contributions), partly due to absences
  • Roma are missing 11% of their usual assist contributions due to absences, including Devyne Rensch (0G/4A)
Overview

Bologna (8th place, 48 points) host Roma (6th place, 58 points) at the Stadio Renato Dall'Ara. Serie A match on April 25, 2026, 6:00 PM. Roma is battling for a European spot, while Bologna is in the mid-table

Form

Bologna's form in the last five matches is WLWLL (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss). They have lost their last two consecutive games

Roma's form in the last five matches is LWLWD (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss) and they drew their last game

Statistics

Bologna averages 1.23 home goals scored per game and concedes 1.38 home goals per game

Roma averages 1.36 away goals scored per game and also concedes 1.36 goals per away game

Bologna's matches at the Stadio Renato Dall'Ara average 2.6 total goals per game

Both teams scored in 3 of 5 matches, and 2 of 5 matches had over 2.5 goals

Head-to-Head

In the last five head-to-head matches, Bologna recorded two wins, Roma one win, and there were two draws

Bologna scored 10 goals, while Roma scored 9 goals

The last encounter on March 19, 2026, saw Bologna win away with a 4:3 scoreline

Key Players

For Bologna, Santiago Castro (7 goals, 2 assists) and Riccardo Orsolini (8 goals, 1 assist) are important attackers, both currently showing declining form

Defender Juan Miranda contributes consistently with 1 goal and 2 assists, including 2 assists in the last 5 games

For Roma, Donyell Malen stands out with 10 season goals, 3 of which came in the last 5 games

Matías Soulé (6 goals, 5 assists) and Mario Hermoso (2 goals, 1 assist, rising form) are other key players, with Hermoso contributing 1 goal and 1 assist in his last 5 appearances

Goalkeepers

Bologna's goalkeeper, Federico Ravaglia, made 16 season appearances and kept 6 clean sheets in home games

For Roma, Mile Svilar was in goal for 33 season appearances and achieved 5 away clean sheets

Influences

The Stadio Renato Dall'Ara averages 2.6 goals per game

Both teams scored in 3 out of 5 matches, and 2 out of 5 matches had over 2.5 goals

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