Serie A
Parma - Pisa
04/25/2026, 01:00 PM
Expected Goals
0.9
1.8
0.9
0:0
18%1:1
15%1:0
13%0:1
13%2:0
7%What influences the xG?
Parma
Pisa
The Lab
- 1Pisa with Rafiu Durosinmi: 1.4 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 2Parma with AdriƔn BernabƩ: 1.2 goals/90 min. Without: 0.3 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)
- 3Parma: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games
- 4Parma: 67% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)
- 5Pisa: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
32%
Draw
37%
Away Win
31%
Goals
Over 1.5
55%
Under 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
27%
Under 2.5
73%
Over 3.5
11%
Under 3.5
89%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
69%
Away or Draw
68%
No Draw
63%
Both Score
Yes
37%
No
63%
Key Factors
- Pisa's poor away form: The team has suffered 4 losses in their last 5 matches (WLLLL) and concedes an average of 1.77 goals per away game
- Low offensive output for both teams: Parma scores only 0.75 goals per home game, while Pisa scores 0.73 goals per away game
- Tight mathematical prediction: The model forecasts a very close match, with 36% for a draw and 32% for a home win
Risk Factors
- Parma scored an average of only 0.75 goals per home game
- Pisa averaged only 3.2 shots on target in their last 5 games
- Pisa concedes an average of 1.82 goals per game this season
Overview
Parma (14th place, 39 points) hosts Pisa (20th place, 18 points) at Stadio Ennio Tardini
Serie A match on April 25, 2026, 3:00 PM
This fixture is a clash between a mid-table team and the league's bottom side
Pisa is fighting relegation, while Parma aims to secure its position in the league
Form
Parma's recent form in their last 5 matches is LLDDW
This translates to 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses
Their last result was a win
Pisa's recent form in their last 5 matches is WLLLL
This translates to 1 win, 0 draws, and 4 losses
They are currently on a 4-game losing streak
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Statistics
Parma averages 0.73 goals scored and 1.21 goals conceded per game this season
At home, Parma scores an average of 0.75 goals and concedes 1.38 goals per match
Parma has kept 11 clean sheets in total
Pisa also averages 0.73 goals scored, but concedes 1.82 goals per game
In away games, Pisa averages 0.73 goals scored and concedes 1.77 goals per match
Pisa has achieved 5 clean sheets this season
The venue, Stadio Ennio Tardini, has seen an average of 2.8 goals per game in the last 5 matches
Both teams scored in 4 out of 5 matches, and over 2.5 goals occurred in 2 out of 5 matches
Head-to-Head
Only 1 direct duel has been recorded between these teams
Pisa won the last encounter 1-0 on December 8, 2025
This single match shows a home win for Pisa
Key Players
For Parma, Mateo Pellegrino (attacker) is a key player with 8 goals and 1 assist this season, holding an average rating of 6.85
Gabriel Strefezza (attacker) contributed 1 goal and 2 assists, averaging 7.1
AdriƔn BernabƩ (midfielder) has 3 goals and 1 assist with an average rating of 7.1
For Pisa, Stefano Moreo (attacker) leads with 6 goals and 1 assist, averaging 6.91
Mehdi LĆ©ris (attacker) recorded 1 goal and 3 assists with an average rating of 6.76
Antonio Caracciolo (defender) has scored 2 goals with an average rating of 6.72
Goalkeepers
Zion Suzuki is Parma's starting goalkeeper with a season average rating of 6.92
The team has 11 clean sheets this season
Adrian Semper is Pisa's starting goalkeeper with a season average rating of 6.92
The team has 5 clean sheets this season
Influences
Parma's home games show an average of 0.75 goals scored and 1.38 goals conceded
Pisa's away games show an average of 0.73 goals scored and 1.77 goals conceded
The Stadio Ennio Tardini has averaged 2.8 total goals per game, with both teams scoring in 4 out of 5 matches and over 2.5 goals in 2 out of 5 matches