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Serie A

Cagliari - Atalanta

04/27/2026, 04:30 PM

3 : 2
Expected Goals
Cagliari
0.9
Total xG
2.2
Atalanta
1.3
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:1

13%

0:0

13%

0:2

10%

1:2

8%
What influences the xG?
CAGATA

Cagliari

Attack weakness (0.63x league average)
-0.43
5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match)
-0.17
Declining form (0.6 vs 1.2 season average)
-0.17
Standings disadvantage (pos 16 vs 7, 9 places gap)
-0.09
Marco Palestra on the bench (1 goals, 4 assists)
15% of goal output missing (only 86% available)

Atalanta

4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.10
Declining form (1.2 vs 1.5 season average)
-0.10
Standings advantage (pos 7 vs 16, 9 places gap)
+0.06
Nikola Krstović on the bench (10 goals, 4 assists)
Nicola Zalewski on the bench (2 goals, 4 assists)
Lorenzo Bernasconi not in squad (0 goals, 3 assists)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Cagliari: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (4 of 8 total)

  • 2
    Atalanta: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (4 of 8 total)

  • 3
    Cagliari with Semih Kılıçsoy: 1.4 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 4
    Atalanta: 74% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)

  • 5
    Atalanta with Giacomo Raspadori: 2.5 goals/90 min. Without: 1 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

23%

Draw

32%

Away Win

45%

Goals

Over 1.5

66%

Under 1.5

34%

Over 2.5

37%

Under 2.5

63%

Over 3.5

18%

Under 3.5

82%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

55%

Away or Draw

77%

No Draw

68%

Both Score

Yes

44%

No

56%

Key Factors
  • Pipeline analysis: The mathematical prediction favors Atalanta with a 45% probability
  • Form advantage: Atalanta shows better form in the last five games with 2 wins and 2 draws compared to Cagliari (1 win, 0 draws)
  • Head-to-head history: Atalanta dominated the recent 5 encounters with 3 wins versus only one win for Cagliari
Risk Factors
  • Cagliari averaged only 2.6 shots on target in their last 5 games
  • Both teams show a negative recent form trend according to Advanced Stats
  • The Sardegna Arena records an average of only 1.4 goals per game
Overview

Cagliari (16th place, 33 points) host Atalanta (7th place, 54 points) at the Sardegna Arena

Serie A match on April 27, 2026, 4:30 PM

Cagliari is fighting for survival, while Atalanta is pushing for a European spot

The mathematical analysis predicts an away win probability of 45%, while a home win is rated at 23% and a draw at 32%

Form

Cagliari's form across all competitions is LLLWL

This corresponds to 1 win, 0 draws, and 4 losses from the last five matches

The last result was a loss

Atalanta's form across all competitions is WWLDD

This corresponds to 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss from the last five matches

The last result was a draw, and the team has recorded two consecutive draws recently

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Cagliari averaged 1.0 goals scored per game this season and conceded 1.42 goals

In home games, the average is 1.0 goals scored and 1.06 goals conceded per match

Atalanta has averaged 1.36 goals scored and 0.88 goals conceded per game this season

In away games, Atalanta averages 1.33 goals scored and concedes 1.0 goal per game

The Sardegna Arena records an average of 1.4 goals per game

In 20% of matches (1 out of 5), both teams scored, and in 20% of matches (1 out of 5), over 2.5 goals were scored

Head-to-Head

In the last 5 direct encounters, there have been a total of 5 matches

Cagliari won 1 time, Atalanta secured 3 victories, and 1 match ended in a draw

Cagliari scored 3 goals, while Atalanta scored 6 goals

The last duel on December 13, 2025, ended with a 2-1 victory for Atalanta

Atalanta has been more dominant in recent head-to-head matches

Key Players

Cagliari relies on Sebastiano Esposito, who contributed 6 goals and 5 assists this season and scored 3 goals in his last 5 games with a rating of 7.42

Gianluca Gaetano was involved in 2 goals and 3 assists, maintaining a stable rating of 6.85 in his last 5 appearances

Adam Obert provided 3 assists this season and kept his rating at 6.79 in his last 5 matches

For Atalanta, Gianluca Scamacca with 8 goals and 1 assist and Charles De Ketelaere with 3 goals and 5 assists are key figures

Charles De Ketelaere provided 2 assists in his last 5 games with a rating of 7.29

Mario Pašalić recorded 3 goals and 5 assists and scored 1 goal and 1 assist in his last 5 games with a rating of 7.12

Goalkeepers

Elia Caprile is in goal for Cagliari, having made 33 appearances this season and keeping 7 clean sheets

Marco Carnesecchi is Atalanta's goalkeeper with 33 appearances and 12 clean sheets this season

Elia Caprile shows a declining form trend according to statistics, while Marco Carnesecchi exhibits a stable trend

Influences

Cagliari scores an average of 1.0 goal at home and concedes 1.06 goals

Atalanta scores an average of 1.33 goals away and concedes 1.0 goal

The Sardegna Arena is known for an average of 1.4 goals per game

Only in 20% of matches at this stadium did both teams score, and only in 20% were there over 2.5 goals

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