Serie A
Torino - Inter
04/26/2026, 04:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.0
2.5
1.5
1:1
14%0:2
10%1:2
9%2:1
6%0:3
5%What influences the xG?
Torino
Inter
The Lab
- 1Inter with Hakan Çalhanoğlu: 3.1 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 2Torino with Ché Adams: 2.6 goals/90 min. Without: 1 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 3Inter: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- 4Torino: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- 5Inter: 35% of all goals between minutes 46-60 (6 of 17)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
22%
Draw
29%
Away Win
49%
Goals
Over 1.5
73%
Under 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
46%
Under 2.5
54%
Over 3.5
24%
Under 3.5
76%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
51%
Away or Draw
78%
No Draw
71%
Both Score
Yes
50%
No
50%
Key Factors
- Inter is the team with stronger form, having four wins and one draw in their last five matches.
- The historical head-to-head record clearly favors Inter, who have won all five direct encounters against Torino.
- The mathematical analysis indicates a 49% win probability for Inter and 1.53 expected away goals.
Risk Factors
- Torino's offense shows significant improvement in recent form, averaging 2.3 goals compared to their season average of 1.3 goals.
- Inter conceded an average of 1.6 goals in their recent form phase, which is above their season average of 0.88.
- Data availability for duels in the last five games for both teams is limited.
Overview
Torino (13th place, 40 points) host league leaders Inter (1st place, 78 points) at the Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino. The Serie A match takes place on April 26, 2026, 6:00 PM. Inter aims to extend their lead at the top, while Torino seeks to improve their league position.
Form
Torino's form in their last five matches shows three wins, one draw, and one loss (Form: WLWWD). Their last game was a 0-0 draw against Cremonese. Inter is in a strong phase with four wins and one draw in their last five games (Form: DWWWW). The team recently celebrated a 3-2 victory against Como and is on a streak of four consecutive wins.
Statistics
Torino averages 1.12 goals per game and concedes 1.64 goals per game this season. At home, they average 1.11 goals scored and 1.26 goals conceded. Inter is significantly stronger offensively, averaging 2.36 goals per game and conceding only 0.88 goals. Away from home, Inter scores 2.38 goals and concedes 1.08 goals per match. The Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino has seen an average of 2.8 total goals in the last five games, with both teams scoring in 3 out of 5 matches and 3 out of 5 matches ending with over 2.5 goals.
Head-to-Head
In the last five head-to-head encounters, Inter completely dominated with five wins to Torino's zero. The goal difference is 14:3 in favor of Inter. The last meeting on February 4, 2026, ended in a 2-1 victory for Inter.
Key Players
For Torino, Giovanni Simeone stands out with 9 season goals and 3 goals in his last 5 games, showing rising form. Nikola Vlašić has 7 season goals and 3 assists. Emirhan İlhan scored once in his last 5 games and is in strong rising form. Not nominated: Marcus Pedersen (0G/2A).
For Inter, Marcus Thuram shines with 11 season goals, 5 assists, and 5 goals and 3 assists in his last 5 games, with strongly rising form. Federico Dimarco is a key playmaker with 6 season goals and 15 assists. Nicolò Barella (3 goals, 8 assists) contributed 2 goals and 2 assists in his last 5 games. Not nominated: Hakan Çalhanoğlu (9G/4A), Pio Esposito (6G/4A), Denzel Dumfries (3G/1A).
Goalkeepers
Torino relies on Alberto Paleari, who recorded 5 home clean sheets this season. For Inter, Yann Sommer is in goal, having achieved 9 away clean sheets this season.
Influences
Torino's home advantage is supported by their performance at the Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino, where the last five matches averaged 2.8 goals, both teams scored in 60% of cases, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 60% of matches. Torino scored an average of 1.11 goals at home and conceded 1.26, while Inter scored 2.38 goals away and conceded 1.08.