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Serie A

Napoli - Cremonese

04/24/2026, 06:45 PM

4 : 0
Expected Goals
Napoli
1.5
Total xG
2.2
Cremonese
0.7
Most Likely Scores

1:0

15%

1:1

13%

0:0

13%

2:0

12%

2:1

9%
What influences the xG?
NAPCRE

Napoli

4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.14
Declining form (1 vs 1.5 season average)
-0.14
Standings advantage (pos 3 vs 17, 14 places gap)
+0.10
Leonardo Spinazzola not in squad (3 goals, 3 assists)
Frank Anguissa  not in squad (4 goals, 1 assists)
Sam Beukema not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists)

Cremonese

Defensive weakness (1.7 conceded vs 1.1 league avg)
+0.60
Attack weakness (0.57x league average)
-0.42
Standings disadvantage (pos 17 vs 3, 14 places gap)
-0.12
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.05
Jari Vandeputte on the bench (1 goals, 4 assists)
Weak away record (0.8 vs 1 goals/match)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Cremonese with Youssef Maleh: 0.9 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Cremonese: scored only in H2 in 4 consecutive games (4 of 8 total)

  • 3
    Cremonese: 82% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)

  • 4
    Napoli with Pasquale Mazzocchi : 5.3 goals/90 min. Without: 1 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)

  • 5
    Napoli: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

53%

Draw

30%

Away Win

17%

Goals

Over 1.5

66%

Under 1.5

34%

Over 2.5

37%

Under 2.5

63%

Over 3.5

18%

Under 3.5

82%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

83%

Away or Draw

47%

No Draw

70%

Both Score

Yes

41%

No

59%

Key Factors
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a home win for Napoli with a probability of 53%
  • Cremonese is missing a key player, resulting in only 41% of their usual assist threat being available without Jari Vandeputte
  • Napoli shows a stronger season performance (3rd place) and better form (3 wins in the last 5 games) compared to Cremonese (17th place)
Risk Factors
  • Napoli's goal production has recently stalled (1.0 goals per game) compared to their season average (1.5 goals)
  • Cremonese averaged only 3.2 shots on target in their last 5 games
  • Napoli suffered a 0-2 defeat in their last home game
Overview

Napoli (3rd place, 66 points) host Cremonese (17th place, 28 points) at the Stadio Diego Armando Maradona

Serie A match on April 24, 2026, 8:45 PM

Napoli aims for an improved position in the top third of the table

Cremonese is fighting against relegation from the league

Form

Napoli shows a form of WWWDL (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

In their last five matches, they recorded 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss

Their last match was a 0-2 loss against Lazio

Cremonese has a form of LWLLD

They achieved 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses

Their last game ended in a 0-0 draw against Torino

Statistics

Napoli scored an average of 1.45 goals per game this season and conceded 1.0 goals

At home, they scored 1.44 times and conceded 0.83 goals per game

Napoli kept 11 clean sheets

Cremonese scored an average of 0.79 goals and conceded 1.42 goals per game

Away, they scored 0.76 goals and conceded 1.41 goals per game

Cremonese had 9 clean sheets

At the Stadio Diego Armando Maradona, an average of 2.6 goals per game were scored

In 3 of 5 games, both teams scored, and 3 of 5 games ended with over 2.5 goals

Head-to-Head

There has been 1 head-to-head match between Napoli and Cremonese so far

Napoli won this game 2-0 on December 28, 2025

The goal difference is 2-0 in favor of Napoli

Napoli dominated the last encounter

Key Players

For Napoli, the following players are notable: Rasmus Højlund, who contributed 10 goals and 3 assists in 28 season appearances and shows stable form

Scott McTominay scored 8 goals and 3 assists in 28 games and also shows stable form

Matteo Politano showed rising form with 2 goals and 1 assist in the last 5 games, with a total of 2 goals and 5 assists in 30 season appearances

For Cremonese, these players are important: Federico Bonazzoli with 7 goals and 2 assists in 30 games and stable form

Youssef Maleh, who scored 1 goal in 9 games and shows stable form

David Okereke with 1 goal in 7 games and also stable form

Not nominated for Napoli are Leonardo Spinazzola (3G/3A), Frank Anguissa (4G/1A) and Sam Beukema (2G/0A)

Not nominated for Cremonese is Jari Vandeputte (1G/4A)

Goalkeepers

Napoli's goalkeeper Vanja Milinković-Savić played in 24 games

The team recorded 11 clean sheets this season

Cremonese's goalkeeper Emil Audero made 29 appearances

Cremonese achieved 9 clean sheets this season

Influences

Napoli scores an average of 1.44 goals at home and concedes 0.83 goals, indicating a certain home advantage

At the Stadio Diego Armando Maradona, an average of 2.6 goals per game were scored

In 60% of games, both teams scored and 60% ended with over 2.5 goals

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